Canberra: The former prime minister John Howard says he senses “a clear mood change in the community”, with people turning back towards the Turnbull government, but pulling off a victory over Labour at the coming by-elections would be “something approaching a political earthquake”.
Continuing the theme of unity that has flowed through Liberal party leadership speeches at its 60th national council — which also voted on Saturday to privatise the ABC — Howard acknowledged that the road had been rocky for the Turnbull government.
“I think Malcolm Turnbull will win the next election, I think things are going better now than they have been for the last six months,” he said.
“There’s no point in pretending we haven’t had a few ups and downs, and haven’t been behind in the polls.”
But he believed the tide was turning and was buoyed by Labour’s comparatively low primary vote. He said that when the government changed hands in 1996, 2007 and 2013, the opposition parties had been polling in the mid-40s in the year or so before the elections.
“The Labour primary vote has been stuck below 40 per cent for a very long time,” Howard said.
“That is a salutary reminder, although there may be irritation and disappointment with us, there is no enthusiasm for the replacement.”
In a news conference following his speech, Howard warmed to his theme of Turnbull’s improved political fortunes, but would not be drawn further on whether the prime minister was receiving the same level of support and unity as he did previously.
“All political parties have balance and those sorts of things. I think the government’s position is strengthening. It won’t be easy, but there has been a clear mood change in the community,” he said.
He put that down to Bill Shorten’s “very left wing agenda”.
“I studied politics for a long time and the sort of left wing populism he is embracing now is a throwback and I don’t think the public likes the class warfare,” he said.
“We have always had income differences in our country, and that is unavoidable, but providing people earning high incomes do it honestly and pay their taxes, there is no reason why they shouldn’t be entitled to aspire to do that. More Australians than Mr Shorten thinks do aspire to do better, and I think is a big mistake he is making.”
Howard also declined to say whether he believed the Liberal party should continue making preference deals with One Nation, after the loss of the WA and Queensland state elections.
But despite what he perceived to be a shift towards the government on a macro level, he did not think the party would win the 28 July Braddon or Longman by-elections.
“The government’s chances in Longman and Braddon are very tough, very remote,” he said.
“Government’s don’t win by-elections ... 1920, [was the last time a government won a by-election] I think it was in Kalgoorlie in very special circumstances ... so I think it is very hard and tough and unlikely. Let’s face it — people don’t normally award by-elections to incumbent governments and I think people who are saying otherwise are trying to mitigate — or tamper with expectations.
“The expectations must be that Labor will retain both Longman and Braddon — that is the expectation. Obviously we will work hard and if we were to pull either or both of them off, that would be fantastic. That will be something approaching a political earthquake.”
But he said the ramifications for Labor, if the government did take one of the seats, would put Shorten’s leadership under threat.
“I think if Labour does badly in these by-elections, of course there will be questions about Mr Shorten’s leadership.
“When you are in opposition for a lengthy period of time, there are always questions about your leadership. I could write a PhD on that.”
The Liberal party’s national council also voted on Saturday to privatise the ABC, as conservative anger at the public broadcaster continues to be a political flashpoint.
In a non-binding motion put forward by the Young Liberal Movement, members called for the full privatisation of the ABC, “except for services into regional areas that are not commercially viable”.
The Institute of Public Affairs has been increasing the volume on its calls to sell off Aunty, which it considers to be “a $1 billion public policy initiative that is increasingly out of date”.
In calling for the sell-off, the council was told “high sentimentality is no justification for preserving the status quo”.
There was no dissent from the room, and no count was needed for the overwhelming vote.
The communications minister, Mitch Fifield, who has made six complaints in almost as many months against the ABC over its content, most recently over analysis that the super Saturday by-election date was a political decision, said it was not government policy to privatise the ABC.