Rocked by uncertainty

The real cost of the political uncertainty that has dogged Bangladesh since president Iajuddin Ahmad announced elections on January 22, 2007 and as suddenly postponed them, is how a fraught transfer of power has jeopardised a seemingly successful experiment in democracy. The promise of the Nineties, when political forces wrung out the right to vote from a politicised army, has all but fizzled out.

The disorder that feeds this South Asian democracy of 140 million has finally manifested itself. And that rarest of rare beacons in the Islamic world that set out to prove Islam and democracy can co-exist, that non-partisan elections and a constitutionally mandated handover from one government to another were not impossible, has been dulled.

The future of Bangladesh as it exists today - a raucous, but functioning democratic Islamic republic - is under serious threat of instability and endemic violence. Until new dates are set for elections, its fate still hangs in the balance. In a series of events that revisits the political volatility of the past, every political pillar of state was manipulated by key players in the run up to the parliamentary elections.

The repercussion

Beginning with the president, who hails from the outgoing Bangladesh Nationalist Party government but took over as caretaker-administrator when political parties were unable to agree on a candidate, to a Supreme Court chief justice who stopped the bench from passing judgment on the president's self-appointment. Then, to an Election Commission that acknowledges voter lists are false but was unwilling to amend them, to the army, forced to reprise its political role, to the political parties themselves - one, desperate to cling to power at any cost, the other, confrontational to a degree - all the primary institutions have failed the test.

Indeed, good sense may have had little to do with Ahmad stepping down as caretaker administrator. Faced with enormous pressure from the international community which withdrew a team of election monitors in the face of the unabashedly partisan election, and threats to withdraw aid, Ahmad backed down.

An opposition boycott that would have seen more than half the electorate disenfranchised, the prospect of continuing violence raised by their threat to stop the election from going through, were clearly factors that forced the hand of Washington and London.

Forced to announce the appointment of former World Bank executive and former Central Bank governor, Fakhruddin Ahmad, as the new caretaker administrator, a man handpicked by the British and American ambassadors, Ahmad quietly imposed emergency regulations that hark back to the draconian powers adopted by former military dictator, Hussain Mohammad Ershad in 1990. He must have little to do with the appointment of neutral election commissioner, the advisers to the caretaker cabinet and a complete revision of electoral rolls. The emergency must end. As must a gag order on the media, although most of Bangladesh's feisty television and print media has refused to heed them.

Bloody uprising

Unlike Pakistan, where an electorate meekly accepts the diktat of force, the Bangladeshi street erupts in violence and bloodshed at perceived political slights. Equally, it is that very potential to explode into violence that demonstrates how the nation's deeply divisive political culture has steadily been eaten away at a seemingly inviolable constitutional order.

The Awami League (AL), led by Shaikh Hasina Wajed and her 19-party alliance, may feel vindicated that it was their pressure tactics that brought Ahmad to his knees, his resignation speech reflecting many of their concerns about the lack of a level-playing field. But for two months, the AL "grand" alliance employed a bruising strategy of confrontation, strikes and shutdowns to force Ahmad's hand, with little regard for the loss to the country's exchequer of billions of dollars or, the incalculable harm to its already debatable image as a stable democracy.

The danger lies, too, in the kind of tactics that the outgoing BNP administration could employ given that its plan "A", which was to place a partisan machinery in place to ensure an easy victory, has gone awry. It was during the BNP's term that an Islamist uprising made its bloody presence felt, with Bangladesh's first suicide bomber detonating himself, followed by a series of bomb attacks.

The rise of the Jamayetul Mujahideen Bangladesh, and its fellow anti-state elements wanting to seize power at any cost, has its genesis in insidious policies forged by the BNP's alliance partner Jamaat-e-Islami.

The BNP's nervousness stems from a number of factors. The splintering of the BNP had led party stalwarts to launch their own Liberal Democratic Party. Alleging that decision-making was in the hands of former prime minister Khaleda Zia's son, Tarique, the breakaway group could eat into the votes of Zia's four-party alliance.

Murky politics

Similarly, the the indictment of former army chief and president, Hussain Mohammad Ershad, in a case that is 15 years old, that came soon after he announced he was switching his allegiance from the BNP to the AL, was telling. It would have robbed Hasina's alliance of a clear-cut majority, with the Jatiya Party (JP) able to deliver at least 30 in the 300-seat assembly.

An internal assessment by advisers to Hasina found that with the addition of millions of bogus voters on the rolls coupled with the questionable conduct of government officials, a free and fair election would have been out of the question.

"Which is the lesser evil? Taking part when we already know what the results are going to be, or boycotting it so that the international community realises this is a flawed election in which more than 60 per cent of the electorate has not participated?" asks a key aide to Hasina.

They believe that "Begum Zia simply does not want to give up power, she wants to win at any cost", that her strategy was to quell violence thereafter, with the help of the army. "Although the army has not taken part in police brutality during demonstrations, we believe the army being given powers to arrest at will is only a step away from military rule.

"Under martial law and with a brute majority in parliament, Begum Zia can push through constitutional amendments that will return Bangladesh to presidential rule. The real plan is to ensure that her son Tarique becomes prime minister, while she takes on the ceremonial role of president," adds the adviser.

Zia's BNP has so far been able to shrug off criticism as there is little proof of any wrong-doing. Indeed, many in the ruling BNP allege that the JP's boycott of the polls made the AL baulk at participation. "It's afraid that even with a controversial link-up with the Islamist Khilafat to shore up its electoral fortunes, its lack of grassroots strength will expose its lack of electoral muscle," says a senior BNP official.

In fact, AL's memorandum of understanding with the Islamist fringe has given rise to grave concerns among secularist forces, who say that while the party's stated aim is "to manage the fundamentalist forces by engaging with them, regulating madrassas and fatwas, seeking to change them from within", it may find that electoral support comes for a price in a country that has already seen the rise, however stage-managed, of the fundamentalists. There is no denying however, that the AL's agitational strategy was rooted in legitimate concerns. Debating in the UK's House of Lords in November 2006, Lord Avebury quotes the Washington-based National Democratic Institute to say: "The true number of phantom voters, if the missing names are added to the excess 14 million, could be 20 million … the opportunity for massive fraud is obvious."

People's will

The South Asian nation has some hard choices ahead. A new date for elections is only of academic interest. Any new government that is unable to deliver may also find the people turning to a new force that could be avowedly apolitical. What is at issue, however, is whether future governments will be able to imbue the polity with the maturity necessary to freely accept the people's will.

The onus is on Khaleda Zia and Shaikh Hasina to keep democracy alive and to bring Bangladesh back from the brink. But as Dhaka-based analyst, Nadeem Qadir, says: "In Bangladesh, democracy is good only if you win."

- Neena Gopal is a South Asia analyst.

A nation lives

1947 British colonial rule over India ends. A largely Muslim state comprising East and West Pakistan is established.

1970 The Awami League (AL), under Shaikh Mujibur Rahman, wins overwhelming election victory. The government in West Pakistan refuses to recognise the results.

1971 Shaikh Mujib arrested and taken to West Pakistan. In exile, Awami League leaders proclaim the independence of the province of East Pakistan on March 26th. The new country is called Bangladesh. Under 10 million Bangladeshis flee to India as troops from West Pakistan are defeated with Indian assistance.

1972 Shaikh Mujib returns and becomes the prime minister.

1975 Shaikh Mujib becomes the president of Bangladesh. He is assassinated in a military coup in August. Martial law is imposed.

1977 General Ziaur Rahman assumes the presidency.

1979 Martial law is lifted following elections, which Ziaur's Bangladesh National Party (BNP) wins.

1981 Ziaur is assassinated during abortive military coup.

1982 General Ershad assumes power in army coup. He suspends constitution and political parties.

1986 Ershad is elected to five-year term. He lifts martial law and reinstates the constitution.

1987 State of emergency declared after opposition demonstrations and strikes.

1990 Ershad steps down following mass protests.

1991 Ershad convicted and jailed for corruption and illegal possession of weapons. Begum Khaleda Zia, widow of President Ziaur Rahman, becomes prime minister. The prime minister has primary executive power. Awami League returns.

1996 Two sets of elections eventually see the Awami League win power, with Shaikh Hasina Wajed, the daughter of Shaikh Mujibur Rahman, becoming prime
minister.

2001 October - Hasina loses at polls to Khaleda Zia's Nationalist Party and its three coalition partners.

2004 August - Grenade attack on opposition Awami League rally in Dhaka kills 22 people.

2005 January - Prominent Awami League politician Shah AMS Kibria is killed in a grenade attack at a political rally.

2005 August 17 - About 350 small bombs go off nationwide. Two people are killed and more than 100 are injured. A banned Islamic group claims responsibility.

2005 November - Spate of bombings, blamed on Islamic militants, hits Chittagong and Gazipur.

2006 February - Opposition Awami League ends year-long parliamentary boycott.

2006 October - Violent protests over government's choice of a caretaker administration to take over when Premier Zia completes her term at the end of the month. President Ahmad steps in and assumes caretaker role.

2007 January - President steps down as caretaker administrator, postpones elections, imposes an emergency and appoints banker and former Central Bank Governor Fakhruddin Ahmad as head of the caretaker government to oversee elections.

–Courtesy BBC.com