Cold War smoulders afresh

Stand on the blue neon bridge over the Ibar River in Kosovska Mitrovica, in Serbia, and straddle the frontline of today's Cold War.

To the south is Kosovo, an ethnic Albanian province propped up and championed by the United States. To the north is Serbia, a state that looks solidly to Russia for support and protection.

Kosovo's quest for independence from Serbia is one of several issues (Iran is another) that have brought the US and Russia into confrontation in ways not seen for many years. And so far, Moscow has managed to seize the initiative and thwart Washington's plans.

Nine months ago, Kosovo's independence seemed inevitable and imminent. Instead, talks dragged on and the breakaway republic's status remains unsettled, its resolution delayed at least until next year.

That Russia has been able to undermine US intentions owes to the rising influence of President Vladimir V. Putin and the reluctance of numerous European governments, dependent on Russian oil and gas, to challenge Moscow, analysts say.
Russian support has emboldened the Serbian government in a manner that could hinder democratic reforms.

Russia and Serbia have been allies for generations, thanks in part to their common history — Slavic language and Orthodox Christian faith.

But that alliance, in the Serbian government's view, often was more lip-service than real support. Russia, for example, did not block United Nations sanctions imposed in 1992 on what was then Yugoslavia as it tried to suppress rebellions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia.

Kosovo, with its ethnic Albanian majority, has proved a different cause, however.

“Today, when Serbia is at a certain crossroads, she certainly counts on Russia understanding her position,'' Serbian President Boris Tadic said as his nation began lobbying for Moscow's support on Kosovo. “Russia is one of the pillars of our foreign policy.''

In 1999, to a weakened Russia's chagrin, US-led forces of Nato bombed Serbian troops out of Kosovo. The province has been governed by the United Nations since, with the West supporting its bid for statehood.

Moscow says it is especially concerned about Kosovo because of the precedent it says independence would set for separatist movements closer to home, such as in the Russian republic of Chechnya. Maintaining territorial integrity and strengthening the state have been cornerstones of Putin's administration.

The fervour of Russia's support has pushed the government in Belgrade to harden its stance, making compromise impossible.

Recently, for the first time, a member of Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's inner circle, Aleksandar Simic, raised the prospect of warfare as a legitimate option to be considered by the government.

With US encouragement, the Kosovo Albanians long ago hardened their bottom line. But they were willing to accept a UN plan of “supervised independence''. Belgrade rejected the proposal, saying independence was like pregnancy: Either you are or you are not.

So, instead of agreement, it now seems that the Kosovo Albanian government will, in the next few months declare independence unilaterally, having been assured that key states, starting with the US, will quickly recognise its new status.

On the other hand, undercutting the West has allowed Moscow to reassert its regional authority and regain much of the influence it lost with the humiliating Nato intervention in Kosovo.

For Serbia's leaders, Russian support is good for domestic consumption, especially before the presidential election to be held in the first part of next year.

Among Kosovo's Albanians, there is a sense that they should have moved to independence before Putin had a chance to seize the issue.

This Russian-American Cold War-redux is etched on the ground in Kosovo.

On one side, few places on Earth are more pro-US than Kosovo. A boulevard in Pristina is named after Bill Clinton. Pictures of President Bush graced campaign promos in December's provincial election.

Stepping over the border, it all changes. An enormous monument at the Ibar River bridge, staring from the Serb-controlled side to the Albanian-controlled part of the province, pays tribute to the Serbs killed by Nato bombings and the Albanian “terrorists and criminals'' of Kosovo.