New York. Central banks have delivered 32 interest-rate cuts globally this year as a worsening US-China trade war drags down global economic growth. Swap markets suggest we’re not even at the halfway mark for cuts yet.
Policymakers have reduced rates by a cumulative 13.85 per cent, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements that track 38 central banks. Argentina was excluded from the calculation due to how it manages money supply.
Traders are expecting much more. Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more rate cuts, assuming central banks maintain their current trajectories in easing. Those cuts could total another 16 per cent in global reductions.
Here’s a look at just a few of the larger economies:
With rates falling almost everywhere, and bond yields following, it’s little wonder that yield-hunting behaviour is dominating global fixed-income markets. The result is investors are being forced into longer-maturities and to take on greater credit risks in order to earn returns.