Western powers approach Tehran for nuclear talks

Dubai: Six western powers, including the United States, are making a gambit to Iran, offering it talks over its nuclear programme.

But realising time is in its favour, Tehran is not expected to rush into responding before it guarantees a Western acknowledgment to its right to possess peaceful nuclear technology, experts and analysts said.

In its response to Wednesday's offer by the US and the five other world powers for talks, Tehran said on Thursday it needs to review the details.

The potential round of direct talks will witness "full" American participation. The move marks a major shift in Washington's policy towards Iran. After the former US administration sought to isolate Iran, the current administration of President Barack Obama is making several overtures towards Tehran.

Political analyst Amir Musawi explained: "Iran focuses at this stage on winning a Western acknowledgement, mainly American, to its right to have nuclear technology."

"Afterwards, it will enter comprehensive talks on how to offer assurances that its nuclear programme will not [divert] to non-peaceful directions," Musawi told Gulf News in an interview.

Asked whether the invitation constitutes a prelude to the acknowledgement, Musawi said: "inviting Iran could be a step forward". Also, "the tone of the five plus one was a gentle one and it carries an assuring message to the Iranian side."

Theodore Karasik, Director of research and development at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military said: "I think the Iranians are going to be pragmatic about it and wait until a certain point where they can come out in a position of strength, which they already have, to say [whether] or not they will participate," he said.

"Will they participate in these talks? Perhaps, they will send a representative," Karasik said, adding that the level of the Iranian representative will be "an indicator of how serious they are," and then they will work on reaching "the best deal possible if there is even a deal," he explained in an interview with Gulf News.

Iran's nuclear programme has created significant controversy. While the West fears it has a military purpose, Tehran insists its programme is for peaceful purposes. It turned down all offers to halt its nuclear enrichment programme. Iran was expected to announce on Thursday that it has completed the final stage of the atom fuel production.

Over the last few years, Tehran has increased its influence in the region's affairs, including Iraq where hundreds of US troops are based, boosted its position and strengthened itself as a main power in the region, analysts said.

"Iran is a great power within the Middle East, and is currently at the zenith [of its political clout]," Karasik said. "Time is on their side and they know it."

"Iran doesn't have a military presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, " Musawi said in reference to American troops in both countries where they are being targeted for attacks.

Meanwhile, the upcoming presidential elections in Iran after two months add to the uncertainty of achieving tangible results in attempts to start solving the issues between Iran and the US.

At the same time, Israel has been nervous about the Iranian nuclear programme, and its officials have warned that Israel will "not remain idle" towards it.

On Tuesday, Israel carried out a successful test of its Arrow II anti-missile system, which is said to be designed for use against Iran and its ballistic missiles.

"I read it very seriously," said Karasik of Israeli threats which raised concerns over the possibility of an Israeli attack against Iran, especially with the presence of the hard-line Israeli government led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. "It will do anything it needs to do to protect the state of Israel including a preemptive strike," against Iran.

But, some analysts exclude the possibility of such an attack either because of "Israel's inability militarily", or "its heavy-cost" on Israel or uncertainty of its results.

However, some other analysts, including Musawi, describe the Israeli threats as part of psychological warfare to influence Washington's approach to Iran.

"From the military perspective," Musawi said, "Israel has the ability to attack any position in Iran, but from the political and security perspective, it won't be in its favour & it will be like playing with fire or playing with the lion's tail."