Unity Cabinet unlikely to tackle divisive arms issue

Beirut: Lebanon's new government, a shaky coalition of Western-backed factions and Hezbollah, is unlikely to tackle the chief challenge the country faces — a buildup of the Iranian-backed group's weapons — even as the rockets cause sharp new tensions with neighbouring Israel.

On Wednesday, Israel released documents and photos it said proved Iran was behind a shipment of weapons seized last week, which Israel claimed was bound for Hezbollah. The group has denied any links to the arms ship. The day before, the Israeli army chief told parliament members that the group now has tens of thousands of rockets stored in southern Lebanon, and could strike deep into Israel.

The UN resolution that ended a bitter 2006 monthlong war between Hezbollah and Israel called for Hezbollah's disarmament, something the group has strongly rejected.

The new Lebanese government formed on Monday, headed by US-backed Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri and including two Hezbollah ministers, is not expected to make a major push to disarm the group.

Sectarian violence

The reason: Hezbollah's arsenal remains a divisive issue among the Lebanese, and any action by Hariri could immediately cause a crisis in his new government — or even a renewed outbreak of the sectarian violence that tore through Beirut in spring 2008, analysts say. "If the government moves to force Hezbollah to lay down its arms, Hezbollah will definitely resist this, something that will lead to civil unrest in the country," said Ali Hamadeh, a political analyst with the leading An Nahar newspaper.

Instead, the Hezbollah weapons will likely remain an issue for a so-called "national dialogue". Rival Lebanese factions have been conducting such dialogue periodically the past three years. But they have so far made no progress on a defence strategy that would eventually integrate Hezbollah's weapons into the Lebanese regular armed forces.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said recently that the group has replenished its weapons stock since its 2006 conflict with Israel and now has more than 30,000 rockets.

The world's concern with Hezbollah's weapons was reflected in a White House statement on Tuesday that praised the cabinet's formation after more than four months of deadlock, but called on the government to implement UN Security Council resolutions that call for dismantling all militias in Lebanon.

"Had there been no Hezbollah weapons, the world would have ignored Lebanon and no one would have cared about the formation of a new cabinet," said Ebrahim Bayram, another political analyst.

Hariri's cabinet is the first since his Western-backed alliance narrowly defeated the Hezbollah-led coalition in June elections, enabling it to retain a slim majority in parliament.

Repeat

Hariri sought to form the unity government as a way of overcoming the country's deep sectarian divisions and avoiding a repeat of last year's fighting that nearly drove Lebanon to the brink of a new civil war.

But given the major differences over both Hezbollah's weapons and political and economic reforms, "this cabinet has a slim chance of success", said Hamadeh.

Hezbollah has a virtual veto power over the government's moves, most analysts believe — because if it pulls out, sectarian violence could follow.

The withdrawal of five Shiite ministers and an allied Christian minister from the previous government in late 2006 led to a fierce power struggle between the Hezbollah-led bloc and the West-backed government.

The political standoff turned violent in May 2008 when Hezbollah fighters swept through Sunni neighbourhoods of Beirut to briefly seize control.