Surge in political progress remains elusive

Washington: The main question for US policymakers in judging President Bush's surge strategy in Iraq remains a political one: Did Iraqis use the period of intensified American action to make political gains, especially to further the reconciliation goals for ending sectarian violence?

General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker were scheduled to give their progress report on Iraq to Congress yesterday.

General Petraeus said in a letter to his troops that in this political objective the surge "has not worked out as we had hoped," and the debate in the days ahead will revolve primarily around the Iraqis' political shortcomings and what that should mean for US policy.

That debate falls broadly into three camps:

First, the political failures show that Iraq is in a civil war the US cannot stop, so US troops should come home;

Second, US security interests are served by the surge's military successes, and the rug should not be pulled out from under local Iraqis, such as the Sunnis of Anbar Province, who are starting to act without the central government;

Third, as a 'middle way,' the US should begin a token troop drawdown in coming months to pressure the government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki to make political progress and to get the US on the road to an orderly disengagement.

Dysfunctional

President Bush plans to address the nation this week, probably on Thursday night, when he is expected to offer his vision for the way forward after hearing the Petraeus-Crocker comprehensive report. Bush, who must deliver an Iraq progress report to Congress by Saturday, is expected to conclude that recent military advances should permit a small drawdown of troops to begin early next year.

The underlying issue, though, remains Iraq's political inertia and what to do about a central government that many officials and experts in all camps have concluded is dysfunctional.

"The real issue hanging out there is the question of the role of the central government in relation to the rest of the country," says Ken Pollack, an Iraq expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "The central government is hopelessly deadlocked at the moment, and while there are local areas of progress, in every case they are being undermined by the conflicts going on in Baghdad in the central government."

The central government's "negative impact" has led Iraqis and an exasperated Bush administration to weigh the merits of encouraging a replacement to Al Maliki, and to efforts by the US and some Iraqis to decentralise power in Iraq and reduce Baghdad's role.