Polls will revive not solve conflicts, think-tank says

Dubai: A leading think-tank has warned that Lebanon's poll risks offering false hope.

In its latest report, the International Crisis Group (ICG), an influential Brussels-based non profit organisation, has said that elections will revive underlying conflicts, not solve them.

The ICG report said that regardless of who ultimately prevails - the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance or the pro-Western March 14 coalition - forming a viable government and agreeing on a common programme will, at best, be time-consuming and require difficult compromises on all sides.

Speaking to Gulf News, Peter Harling, ICG's Lebanon Project Director, said a lot will depend on the foreign players. "Their [the Lebanese parties'] appetite for compromise will depend on the signals they receive from these countries."

Harling said the French, for instance, were taking a position in favour of a unity government in Lebanon. "The alternative is backing one side against the other, and you simply turn the clock back to the situation that prevailed in the country in May 2008 [when tensions between the government and the opposition escalated into armed clashes]."

Harling noted in the ICG report on the elections: "The results almost certainly will be close and so replicate the schism that divides the political arena into two irreconcilable camps."

Polls have predicted that March 8 has a slight edge over March 14. But in a surprise move, Lebanon's President Michel Sulaiman announced his backing of March 14, thereby denting the Hezbollah-led opposition's chances in the polls.