No war likely on volatile border

Beirut: An escalation along the Lebanese-Israeli border is unlikely despite this week's deadly clashes as all parties, including Hezbollah, appear keen on containing the situation, at least for now, analysts say.

"Israel and Hezbollah had a golden opportunity to fight it out and Hezbollah would have had a perfect alibi to say they were defending the country," said Gassan Azzi, political science professor at Lebanese University.

"But I don't think the war is for tomorrow as it's not the right time," Azzi said.

Tuesday's flare-up along the volatile border between Lebanese and Israeli troops — over an operation to uproot a tree — marked the worst fighting in the area since the 2006 war between the Hezbollah and the Jewish state.

The clashes, which left four people dead, illustrated the high tension in the region and how a small incident could potentially escalate into all-out war.

But the subsequent measured response by all the parties also showed that no one wants a fight, at least for now.

"In the near future, I don't see an escalation," said Oussama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies. "It is not a Lebanese army corporal who is going to start the war in the south," he added. "It is way beyond that and the factors for that war aren't there yet."

The Israeli military believes the shootout was sparked by a lone Lebanese army officer who was not acting on orders from higher-ups, Israeli defence experts said.

Analysts pointed out that Hezbollah, by far the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon, on Tuesday had stayed out of the clashes that took place in a region largely under their control in a move that shows it is not ready for war.

"Hezbollah is trying very smartly to get as much mileage as possible out of this," Safa said. "They have said they are ready [for battle] ... but the timing is absolutely theirs."

He added that had the militant group, backed by Syria and Iran, stepped into the fray on Tuesday it would have provoked a regional conflict.

"Fighting along the army would mean war and this is not on the table right now," he said.

Israel, which considers Hezbollah its number one enemy in Lebanon and is keen on neutralising the party's military capacity, also showed restraint after Tuesday's skirmish.