Yemen grapples with revolt and secessionism

Dubai: Facing a revolt in the north, discontent in the south, a resurgent Al Qaida campaign and an influx of African refugees, impoverished Yemen is struggling just to keep itself in one piece.

Situated on main shipping lanes and next to the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, Yemen's worsening problems raise red flags beyond its own Arabian Peninsula borders.

The government is battling a four-year-old revolt led by Abdul Malek Al Houthi, a member of the Zaydi sect of Shiite Islam, which Sana'a says is backed by Iranian money.

Hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced by fighting in the northern province of Sa'ada. It took a turn for the worse this month after a mosque bombing killed 15 people.

Job protests

What began as southern job protests in April descended into 10 days of riots demanding secession for an area that is home to most of Yemen's oil but where many people feel marginalised.

"Yemen is running out of oil and water, its population is growing out of control and the regime is focused on protecting itself," said Bernard Haykel, Middle East Studies professor at Princeton University. "This is a recipe for disaster."

Yemen is trying to diversify its economy as oil reserves dwindle but Al Qaida attacks that killed ten tourists in the past year mean a plan to boost tourism has been still-born.

The more unstable the ancestral home of Osama Bin Laden, the more likely it is to attract the very Al Qaida fighters that the US wants its Yemeni ally to help keep at bay.

Mortar shells fired at the US embassy in March wounded 13 girls at a nearby school. A similar attack narrowly missed the Italian embassy in April. Both were claimed by Al Qaida.

"Al Qaida in Yemen has already shown that it can rise from the ashes of defeat stronger and better organised," a report published in April by the Combating Terrorism Centre at the US Military Academy at West Point said.

One of the world's poorest states, Yemen has seen discontent rise with the global price of food, most of which it imports. So much land is used to grow qat that food crops have been declining and water is running out while the 22 million population is growing by 3 per cent a year.

International donors have pledged billions of dollars to Yemen in return for vows to reform and end endemic corruption. Yet a largely rural populace sees little of the money.

"In the south, they started calling for rights but no one responded so when someone came up with the slogan 'right to self-determination' it had an electrifying effect on the populace," said Yemeni analyst Abdul Gani Al Iryani.

In a move billed as a step toward decentralisation, Yemen this month introduced local council polls to select provincial governors previously appointed by the central government.

But opposition groups boycotted the vote, saying they were not fairly represented on councils.