Saudis in a quandary over Iran's nuclear row with US

Jeddah: America's standoff with Iran is a source of much stress here with Saudi Arabia worried about Iran's nuclear intentions but also fearful of the prospect of strong US action.

Although the kingdom opposes any attempt by Tehran to develop nuclear weapons, it fears military action against Iran would be devastating for the Gulf region.

Analysts say that if attacked, Iran would retaliate against US interests in the region, and Saudi Arabia's oil installations across the Gulf are the biggest and most important.

The kingdom is the world's largest oil producer and any disruption in its exports would seriously affect supplies to the United States and cause oil prices to soar.

Saudi Arabia also believes a US attack on Iran would damage the region's economy and exacerbate tensions over terrorism and the sectarian violence in Iraq.

"Saudi Arabia doesn't want to make an enemy out of Iran for America's sake," said Dawood Al Shirian, a Saudi who hosts a talk show at Dubai TV. "Iran is a neighbour and geography is more permanent than political stands." Khalid Al Maeena, editor of the English-language Arab News daily, said a stiff stance by Saudi Arabia over the nuclear impasse would only further radicalise Iran.

Publicly, the kingdom says it believes Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful, as Tehran insists. Iran has sent several envoys on both open and secret trips to reassure Saudi leaders that its nuclear activities are not directed against the kingdom or the Gulf, according to Western diplomats and analysts.

Sceptical

In a January interview, Foreign Minister Prince Saud made clear Saudi Arabia would oppose any such ambitions.

In return for its understanding on the nuclear issue, Saudi Arabia hopes for Iranian understanding in Iraq, where Tehran has great influence over the majority Shiites, Al Shirian said. Saudi Arabia eager for stability in neighbouring Iraq wants Sunnis to have a greater say in the country they ruled under Saddam Hussain.

Some Saudis, however, are sceptical of Iran's reassurances.

"You can't trust anyone sitting with you over dinner with a pistol on the table," said Abdul Rahman Al Rashed, a Saudi who heads the Dubai-based Al Arabiya TV.

"There's a view here that Iran ... has only one target: Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf." The recent fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon only worsened tensions between the Middle East's two powerhouses.

Saudi Arabia, which has considerable influence in Lebanon, publicly criticised Hezbollah for provoking Israel's devastating bombardment of Lebanon by kidnapping two Israeli soldiers in July.

The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has long been uneasy, especially after the fiery spiritual leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini deposed Iran's shah in 1979 and established an Islamic republic. The Islamic revolution in mostly Shiite Iran alarmed the Sunni Muslim Saudi leadership, which feared it would be next to fall.

Saudi Arabia sided with Baghdad in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, and Riyadh and Tehran were openly hostile to each other at the height of the conflict.