Brown's labour is hard work

Gordon Brown chews his nails and he had good reason to immediately after becoming prime minister.

A failed terror attack and the outbreak of foot and mouth gave him a searching test within weeks of taking over, both of which he passed drawing plaudits from even diehard opponents.

He rose to the occasion, presenting himself as serious, strong and spin-free, in contrast to his predecessor. It was conceivable that Labour, with Capability Brown, would oversee the political landscape for at least two more elections.

That was the root of the problem about to emerge. After the longest goodbye in British political history, Tony Blair eventually departed.

Brown ascended without any challenge in what has been described as a very British coup. Depending on their political loyalty, the Brownites and Blairites disputed just when Brown should have taken over but 10 years after his first election victory Blair's sun set. And then fog descended.

So commanding had been Brown's first months in the job, so convinced were his allies, that over-confidence set in. Like a general believing his subordinates, Brown told his troops to be ready for the command to go over the top.

But instead of firing the starting gun, he took the pistol and shot himself in the foot. A self-inflicted wound is always the hardest to bear, no enemy sniper can do more to damage morale. Falling in the face of enemy fire is one thing falling to your own actions is quite another.

The election, non-election, debacle not only robbed him of his immense authority, it galvanised a dispirited Tory party which had seriously considered getting rid of David Cameron before Christmas. Judgement was ditched in favour of adrenaline.

A cunning plan to throw the Tories off guard and spread panic in the ranks, backfired. Allowing, encouraging and fostering the belief that he was about to go to the country left him with little choice. He was boxed in.

This set him up like a duck at a shooting gallery for a mauling in the Commons at the hands of David Cameron, who mocked him as “the first prime minister in history to flunk an election ‘cos he thought he was going to win it''.

And suddenly unfavourable comparisons were being drawn with Blair. At least Blair, the critics pointed out, would have had the nuance and ability to spin something out of the debacle but Brown was left foundering. When an early election still looked possible, Brown planned to fight it on the basis of being a change from Blair.

His competence and experience compared with Cameron should have given him an advantage. Now that there is unlikely to be an election before the spring of 2009, he will have to recast his entire approach.

Foreign policy will have to change. The separation from the White House was speeded up and he was quick to come out with draconian statements on the terror threat. Europe is off the agenda. Brown must now prove his right to office.

That means spending less time trying to wrong-foot his opponents and more time governing. The qualities needed to dispose off Blair - patience, staying quiet (most of the time), silently plotting - are not qualities needed to govern. Statesmanship more than gamesmanship is required. Brown needs to act like a leader.

If he wants to be a long-term prime minister, he needs to start behaving like one. His moment has come and he nearly squandered it. He is old enough to know that a Labour government is a difficult situation to arrive at and when one is in place it should not be the subject of a silly gamble.

The British media can be unforgiving and there are a number of editors who were privately briefed that an election was to be called. They feel humiliated and will tear into him with renewed vigour if he does anything that even hints at spin. He has not lost the next election but he is not as sure of victory as he once was.

The choice between a Scottish socialist and an Eton environmentalist is not one that makes the heart beat faster. Brown must now articulate his vision, show his hand even with nails chewed to the quick.