Crises overshadow government's first 100 days

Islamabad: For a world that had been hoping democracy would stabilise the country enough to counter Islamist militants and chaos, the first 100 days of the new civilian government haven't been very reassuring.

Asif Ali Zardari is struggling to fill the void left by the assassination in December of his wife Benazir Bhutto, despite their Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) winning the election in February and taking the reins of government on March 29.

There are fears within the PPP that Zardari has chosen a losing path in a three-way power struggle with Musharraf and old foe Nawaz Sharif. Although Musharraf has so far resisted calls for his resignation, he could quit sometime in the coming months, as the Bush presidency that has helped prop him up draws to a close.

Once that happens, most analysts reckon the last vestiges of a post-election alliance between Zardari and Sharif will disappear and Pakistan will enter a fresh phase of instability.

Distracted government

"It is distracting the government from focusing on some grave challenges, economic challenges, but most importantly this challenge from pro-Taliban militants," said Lisa Curtis, a South Asia analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Militants have extended influence over large swathes of the northwest. General Ashfaq Kiyani, who replaced Musharraf as army chief last November, apprised civilian leaders of the scale of the militant threat, and pledged to take orders from them, while retaining the authority to determine the type and size of force used.

Urgent action is also needed to steer the fast-growing economy away from the rocks, and the government is seeking to borrow billions from allies and multilateral lenders.

Zardari's gamble

The defeat of Musharraf's allies in February's election left him vulnerable to attack from the new parliament, but none came.

Instead cracks occurred in the coalition. Sharif pulled his people out of the cabinet, because Zardari broke a promise to swiftly reinstate judges who could have provided a short-cut to ousting Musharraf.

Zardari hasn't stood for election and remains outside the orbit of the parliament. He guides his nominee Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani from behind the scenes, and they are often accused of leaving coalition partners in the dark.

"It's not so important to be popular. But it's very important to be credible and meet some aspirations of the people," said Talat Masood, a retired general turned analyst.

Zardari's hesitancy over reinstating the judges stems from fear some are pro-Sharif and once Musharraf is dealt with they could come after him.

Bush's support for Musharraf has also constrained Zardari, who sees US backing as crucial to Pakistan's future.

"We've got to hold our breath," said Stephen Cohen, a South Asia analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"I would give this new government a considerable period of time, much longer than 100 days, to get themselves organised."