After Musharraf's departure, the ruling coalition becomes fractious

Islamabad: The second biggest party in Pakistan's fractious ruling coalition is threatening to quit the alliance unless a decision is taken today to restore judges dismissed by former president Pervez Musharraf.

The coalition is led by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, which has been dragging its feet on the restoration of the judges. Following are some implications of the departure of the second biggest coalition party, that of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

- The departure of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) from the coalition would not force an election, analysts say, as the PPP should be able to gather enough support from independents and politicians who backed Musharraf to rule.

- The end of the PPP and the PML-N alliance would likely set the scene for a battle over who becomes the next president. The PPP and a southern regional party have said they want Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, who leads the PPP, to become president. Sharif's party does not want to see Zardari as president and would likely nominate its own candidate.

Zardari has declined to say if he wants to be president but if he were to go for the post he would likely want it to retain certain powers, including to dissolve the National Assembly, rather than make the presidency a ceremonial post.

Under Pakistan's constitution a new president should be elected by members of the four provincial assemblies and the two houses of the national parliament within 30 days of Musharraf's resignation.

- A battle over who becomes the next president is likely to divert government attention from economic and security problems, to the dismay of investors and allies. Pakistani stocks and the rupee strengthened on Monday and Tuesday on the hope Musharraf's resignation heralded an end to political uncertainty. But both weakened on Wednesday as a showdown loomed within the coalition over the judges. The slide continued yesterday.

Pakistan's stock market, which rose for six consecutive years to 2007, and was one of the best-performing markets in Asia in that period, has fallen about 27 per cent this year.

An intensifying insurgency in Afghanistan, where 15 foreign soldiers have been killed this week, will lead to greater pressure on Pakistan to act quickly to stop Taliban attacks from sanctuaries on the Pakistani side of the border.