Kerala's Left front reels from stunning electoral blow

The shifting of power from the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) to the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) in the just concluded Kerala assembly polls is nothing new. The rival fronts have been ruling the State alternatively for the last quarter century.

But never in the history of the state's bipolar politics has the electorate dealt such a stunning blow to either front as it has done to the LDF this time.

The UDF, which swept the LDF out of power in one clean sweep, has bagged over 850,000 votes or five per cent more than the rival front. So wide a difference in percentage has left everyone, including the UDF leadership, stupefied Usually, the difference used to be just one or two per cent.

Besides the over five per cent votes, the UDF grabbed an incredible 40 additional seats from the LDF. Departing from the past, this time the two-thirds plus majority has forced political pundits to admit that there was a UDF wave in Kerala, particularly in central Kerala where the UDF virtually wiped out the LDF, but no one is quite able to pin point why the voters swung so far away from the Left.

Results of the last five assembly elections show that there has never been such a vast difference in the percentages of votes won by the rival fronts. In 1982, the LDF secured 47.24 per cent votes and 63 seats, while the UDF got 48 per cent and 78 seats. In 1987, the LDF got 44.97 per cent and 78 seats and the UDF 43.65 per cent and 60 seats.

In 1991, the percentage of the LDF went up slightly 45.79 but the number of seats dropped to 48. The UDF then obtained 48.14 per cent and 82 seats. In 1996, the LDF won more votes and seats. It won 46.03 per cent votes and 80 seats. The UDF had to be content with 44.84 per cent votes and 59 seats.

The hardest hit in the LDF poll debacle is none other than its once powerful leader, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM), whose seats dwindled from 40 to 24, followed by the Communist Party of India (CPI), which now has just seven seats as against the 18 in the outgoing assembly.

Many heavyweights in both the parties lost the latest ballot battle. And in the case of several victorious LDF candidates, there is little reason to rejoice if one considers their victory margins.

For example, LDF's star candidate and the front's convenor V.S. Achuthanandan, who contested from the old Marxist bastion of Malampuzha, could win only by a low margin of 4,703 votes showing a sharp fall from the 18,000-odd votes margin the LDF won in 1996.