Laptops 'could be obsolete by 2012'

Dubai: Half of travelling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favour of other devices in the next five years, an IT research firm said in a forecast of upcoming global industry trends.

Research firm Gartner has highlighted 10 key predictions of events and developments that will affect the IT industry and related businesses in 2008.

The predictions highlight areas where executives and IT professionals need to take action this year so that they can exploit the trends for their competitive advantage.

Daryl C. Plummer, managing vice-president, Gartner, said, "These areas of focus imply a significant groundswell of change that may in turn change the entire industry.

"As users begin to make their own decisions about what technologies to use, they shift industry dynamics. Apple has had a resurgence of its leadership in the innovative delivery of PC technologies. As users grow frustrated with PCs, the Apple model [if not its prices] begins to become extremely attractive again. And although this interest continues, users are now gaining enough functionality in mobile and wireless devices that it may be possible to leave the laptop at home in favour of the ubiquitous handheld device. Even in the home and business, individual technologies are growing in prominence."

The report predicts Apple will sustain its momentum of the past two years and double its combined market share in the US and western European markets to nine per cent by 2011.

Apple's gains in computer market share reflect as much on the failures of the rest of the industry as on Apple's success.

Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on inter-operability across multiple devices such as iPod and iMac cross-selling.

Plummer said stronger competition between Apple and Microsoft will leave Intel more room to set PC industry standards. HP, Toshiba, Sony, Dell are the PC manufacturers most likely to be threatened by Apple's success.

The report recommends that IT managers should be prepared to field more requests to connect Apple products to the corporate network. PC vendors are urged to actively explore ways to offer physical customer service points and better software integration. They need to accelerate efforts to develop brand attributes and segment-focused designs.

Plummer said vendors are developing new classes of internet-centric pocket devices at the sub-$400 level; and server and web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere. These could erode the laptop's market share.