Why US worries about the post-Musharraf era

The hype over the return of Benazir Bhutto and, later, of her political rival Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan cannot hide the deep concern of US experts about a potential nightmare situation in Pakistan after the January elections following President Pervez Musharraf's withdrawal.

America is worried that some shady characters could have their fingers on Pakistan's nuclear button if the next elected prime minister is, again, overthrown by another dictator or even by religious fanatics.

Washington vividly remembers the surreptitious activities of A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani scientist who first masterminded the construction of the Pakistani bomb and, later, created a clandestine network to allegedly peddle nuclear materials and technology to the highest bidder in the international nuclear bazaar.

According to CIA and European intelligence, Pakistan had clandestine dealings with Iran as far back as 1989. Benazir Bhutto, then freshly installed as Pakistan's prime minister, attended a conference of leaders of Islamic countries in Tehran where the then- Iranian president, Hashemi Rafanjani, told the surprised Pakistani premier - she had not been kept in the loop until then - that a defence arrangement finalised by the military establishments of the two countries included nuclear cooperation between the two countries.

Two years prior to that meeting, Khan had sold Iran materials and blueprints for centrifuges used for enrichment of uranium for weapons and also for fuelling civilian reactors. This was the start of Iran's controversial uranium enrichment programme which, Tehran insists, is for civilian use, while Washington suspects it is for developing weapons.

Although Bhutto publicly opposed the supply of nuclear technology to Iran and even disapproved Pakistan's nuclear weapon programme, she pursued the "dream" of her father, former Pakistani prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, to have the "Islamic bomb".

But Benazir was unceremoniously removed in 1990 by Pakistan's military which feared she could stop the country's nuclear programme under US pressure.

Confrontation

When a wiser Bhutto returned to power three years later, in October 1993, she steered away this time from a confrontation with the military establishment. In fact, she cultivated a pleasant relationship with Khan who suggested she should briefly stop in North Korea on her visit to China because North Korea was willing to sell Pakistan the designs of its indigenous No-Dong missile.

US sources say Bhutto obtained North Korean designs and passed them on to Khan, thus starting the latter's infamous relationship with North Korea and helping its nuclear weapons programme.

This also explains Washington's initial reluctance to drop Musharraf who seemed better suited to keep the nuclear assets under control.

Khan, by his own televised confession in early 2004, supplied nuclear technology and expertise to Iran, Libya and North Korea; however, Musharraf refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to interrogate Khan.

After initially agreeing to allow the IAEA to interrogate Khan if elected prime minister, Bhutto quickly retracted from her remarks after sensing the strong opposition of many Pakistanis against it. These "yes-no" signals have confused many, including Bhutto's supporters, in Washington who wonder if they are backing the right horse.

Bhutto's credibility has also not been helped by a recent opinion piece written by her niece, Fatima Bhutto, in Los Angeles Times. Fatima, whose father Mir Murtaza Bhutto, Benazir's brother, was murdered in 1996 during Benazir's second term as prime minister, wrote: "Perhaps, the most bizarre part of this (democracy) circus has been the hijacking of the democratic cause by my aunt, the twice-disgraced former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. While she was hashing out a deal to share power with General Pervez Musharraf last month, she repeatedly insisted that without her, democracy in Pakistan would be a lost cause. Now that the situation has changed, she's saying that she wants Musharraf to step down and that she'd like to make a deal with his opponents - but still, she says, she's the saviour of democracy."

US politicians, for whom the war against terrorism is the real issue, must have found it chilling to read Fatima's contention: "The Islamists are waiting at the gate. They have been waiting for confirmation that the reforms for which the Pakistani people have been struggling have been a farce, propped up by the White House."

Bhutto's every move in the coming days and weeks will be closely watched by the US along with Europe, Japan and India.

Manik Mehta is a commentator on Asian affairs.