Wake-up call for Junblatt

I interviewed Walid Junblatt twice - in 2002 and 2003 - at his palace in Beirut and in his family mansion in Mukhtara. I had seen him often in Syria during the 1980s at the Sheraton Hotel in Damascus, dining and having a good laugh with senior Syrian officials, whom he accused - many years later - of killing his father Kamal Junblatt. At the time he was one of Syria's best friends in Lebanon.

I drove into the Mukhtara Castle in Mount Lebanon with ease, and walked in to find him with a group of visitors, drinking strong Arabic coffee.

The conversation then shifted to Syria and he proudly boasted, "My wife is from Syria (in reference to Noura Sharabati, the daughter of Syria's ex-minister of defence Ahmad Sharabati during the war of 1948). They (the Americans) want us to confront Syria?

Our reply is: Never! Standing up to Syria would be like standing up to ourselves - standing up to Lebanon! We are with Syria until curtain falls, until the very last breath in our lives! I am an ally of Syria! I am with Damascus whether it is ruled by Adib Al Shishakli, who fought us (the Druze), Shukri Al Quwatli, or Bashar Al Assad!"

These words kept coming to mind after Junblatt shifted into the anti-Syrian coalition in 2004, believing that Syria's days in Lebanon were numbered.

Junblatt, a master of political acrobats, became the loudest anti-Syrian statesman in Lebanon, accusing the Syrians of murdering his father in 1977 and Rafik Hariri in 2005.

He allied himself with former Christian enemies such as ex-president Ameen Gemayel and Maronite warlord Samir Gagegea, forgetting that on September 13, 1983, he had famously said from Damascus, "We have removed the Christians and only the Druze villages will remain from now on. Such is our objective!"

The fact that on September 11, 2001, he had accused the Bush Administration of orchestrating the twin tower attacks in New York, seemingly meant very little for the Americans, who made use of their new friend in Beirut to advance US interests in Lebanon

Junblatt readily and abundantly criticised the Syrians, and was the first to stand up to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah, expulsion of the Iranian Ambassador to Beirut, and accusing Nasrallah of harbouring "arms of betrayal!"

For weeks now, he has again been trying to change course seeing that the time is ripe for a rapprochement with the Syrians. The US-imposed isolation of Syria has ended, after Bashar Al Assad's visit to Paris in July 2008.

The Turks and the Qataris are firmly behind Syria in its peace talks with Israel, which might result in a peace treaty as of mid-2009. If that happens, the Hariri Tribunal (on which Junblatt had placed high hopes) will be sent into history.

The US administration, wrapped in controversy in Iraq, is clearly un-interested in regime change in Syria, as was the case in 2005. Junblatt's ally Abdul-Halim Khaddam has by all accounts ruined himself by betting on the wrong horse in 2005.

In Lebanon, Syria's allies proved to still have the upper hand after a military confrontation in the streets of Beirut last May 2008.

Within hours, Hezbollah rounded up all militiamen loyal to Sa'ad Hariri, inflicting heavy moral and military loss on the March 14 Coalition, and forcing the government to back down on anti-Hezbollah legislation.

Changed

Junblatt's tone changed 48 hours into the confrontation, when the fighting ended in Beirut and shifted to Druze villages overlooking the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah fighters surrounded his palace in Beirut, but did not invade it.

He got on the phone with Nabih Berri, the Speaker of Parliament, and said, "I am a hostage now in my home in Beirut. Tell Sayed Hassan Nasrallah I lost the battle and he wins. So let's sit and talk to reach a compromise!"

Last July, Junblatt sent more messages to Damascus in an interview with Lebanese TV, admitting, "We forgot Hariri and focused on taking revenge under the slogan of justice, and this sequestered the March 14 group into an isolationist position. That was a fatal mistake."

He added, "We fiercely attacked the Syrian regime and forgot our Arab discourse," claiming, "a divorce is impossible, and we met in Doha". He also said he had gone to Washington and asked US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to help topple the Syrian regime.

When she said it was behaviour change, rather than regime change, that was on America's mind, he backed out, claiming it became clear that a stand-off with Syria was not in Lebanon's best interests, since the Assad administration in Damascus was not - as he had wished for in 2005, coming to an end.

This week, Junblatt went a step further - since he has still gotten no positive response from the Syrians - accusing Sa'ad Hariri in the daily Al Akbar of building a militia and allying himself with Islamic hardliners.

The Future Movement he said, was like a "troop of camels walking together!" Speaking about the arms of the Hariri team, Junblatt said, "To form a militia today? To face whom? Hezbollah? This is crazy."

Junblatt's office did not deny the statements, but just said that they were not meant to be published. Junblatt realises, after the Doha Agreement was seemingly tailor-made for the Syrians and had Syria's fingerprints all over it, that it would be crazy for an individual like him, to try and shake a country like Syria.

For the Syrians, it was what Winston Churchill once described as, "A prize from fairyland beyond our wildest dreams!"

For Junblatt it was a wake-up call for him to try and mend his bridges in Damascus. The only problem is, the Syrians would rather deal with the devil today, than with Junblatt.

The Druze leader is unwelcome in Syria, and if the Syrians reconcile with Washington in 2009, he will be - for all practical purposes - politically finished and bankrupt.

Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.