US-Syria ties revolve around Iraq

When the US decided to invade Iraq, Syria openly opposed the US plan. In April 2003 while the US tanks rolled into Baghdad, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, in an interview with the Arab media, stated that he hoped the invasion of Iraq would fail and that "popular resistance" would prevent the US from controlling the country.

Domestic and national security factors had precipitated the Syrian position. Syria thought that it was next on the US hit-list; hence, it supported the resistance to the US occupation.

It was also accused of allowing foreign fighters to cross the borders into Iraq and hosting senior members of the former Iraqi regime. In the summer of 2004, Syria started to reconsider its policy, partly because of the US pressure.

The increasing violence in Iraq and the growing influence of the jihadist groups - Al Qaida and the likes, played also key role in reconsidering Syrian policy.

In the autumn of 2005, Syria reinforced its military presence on the Iraqi borders, deploying some 7,000 extra troops to stop would-be infiltrators seeking to join the anti-American insurgency.

In addition, as a mark of good faith, Syria allowed Iraqi candidates for the legislative elections to campaign among the Syria-based Iraqi community. This was a clear departure from the original Syrian policy which opposed the US invasion and everything resulting from it.

Last year, Syria recognised the new Iraqi government and re-established diplomatic relations with Baghdad. And increasingly, observers started to see agreement, sometime overlap of interests between the US and Syria.

During the Sharm Al Shaikh conference on Iraq last May, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Al Mualem and the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, spoke almost the same language on Iraq.

They may have also discovered that it is Iraq where the two countries could really increase their co-operation and stop the deterioration in the relationship between them.

Syria has shown interest in the establishment of a strong central government in Baghdad. For Damascus this is a key requirement to prevent the disintegration of the country and the emergence of confessional-based mini-states.

To this end, Syria has lobbied for the inclusion of the major Sunni powers in the political process. A formula of power and wealth sharing was seen essential to get all the parties involved in a national reconciliation process.

Reconsidering the de-Ba'athification law was also seen as a prerequisite for the success of this process. As a secular country, Syria is concerned about the activities of jihadists in Iraq and fears a spillover of violence.

For Damascus, Iraq might very well turn into another Afghanistan - a breeding place for extremists. Iran's rising influence in Iraq is also a matter of great concern in Syria where Iran is suspected of trying to break up the country and finish once and for all a formidable enemy in the region.

In addition, Syria has never called for an immediate US pullout from Iraq, but wishes to see a reasonable time-table for withdrawal.

Increasing influence

After the collapse of its old security strategy, the US has been trying to persuade Iraqi leaders to form a national unity government. It has also been struggling to provide a reasonable level of stability and security and prevent sectarian violence.

The US is concerned about Iran's increasing influence in Iraq and -just like Syria - does not seem to be interested in establishing an independent Kurdish state in the north of Iraq.

Indeed, there are a number of differences between the two countries, such as the pace of US withdrawal - immediate vs. slow, and Syria's strong ties with the Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr.

Yet, these differences are not unbridgeable for the two sides and could be overcome easily should they agree on an overall strategy to cooperate to stabilise Iraq.

The question now is with the presence of all these common interests, why Iraq cannot act as a launching pad for a better understanding between the two countries? This question is for the leaders of the two countries to think about.

Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.