Thaksin's shadow looms large

Tomorrow, Thais will vote on whether to accept a military-backed constitution to replace the 1997 constitution, which was popularly known as the People's Constitution.

That constitution was thrown out when the military took advantage of then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's absence and seized power on September 19 last year.

By doing so, the junta, known as the Council for National Security (CNS), is seeking legitimacy from the masses for toppling arguably the most popular - and divisive - democratically-elected leader the country has ever seen.

It also signals the beginning of the end of the political limbo that has marked post-coup Thailand, restoring normalcy to the country and putting it back on the path of "democracy".

At least, that is what the junta and most Thais hope for, and this is reinforced by opinion polls that show 77 per cent of voters would accept it.

The alternative is messy and will be done without the people's input, with the junta choosing one of the country's previous 17 constitutions and amending it to pave the way for early elections.

And to get that job done, various methods are being employed, including turning the divisive spectre of Thaksin as a rallying symbol.

"I'm voting yes," says Yolsiri, a healthcare executive in Bangkok. "I don't like Thaksin anyway."

The downfall of the former policeman-turned-premier began with the sale of his family's telecommunications business, Shin Corp, in January 2006 for tax-free $1.9 billion (Dh7 billion).

Violence and unrest in the Muslim-majority south, and Thaksin's heavy-handedness in dealing with the uprising did not help matters. He became even more unpopular with King Bhumibol Aduyadej and the palace.

The situation deteriorated further, after Thaksin dissolved the government and called for snap elections in April, which the opposition boycotted. The Constitutional Court of Thailand nullified the poll results, prolonging the political crisis.

In September, just as the media-savvy, tough-talking politician was getting ready to address the UN General Assembly in New York, the military junta, with the apparent blessing of their much-revered king, took over the government in a bloodless coup, sending Thaksin into exile.

Showdown

In citing Thaksin as a reason for the vote, Yolsiri follows many who see this as a showdown between him and army chief and coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.

Supporters and opponents of the draft charter are both trying to paint the referendum as a measure of support - or otherwise - of the ousted premier.

"Is it true if I vote "No", I would be advocating Thaksin's return to power?" implores a Thai voter to Suthicai Yoon, a columnist at one of Bangkok's English dailies, The Nation.

No, he replies. It will play into Thaksin and CNS supporters' hands, who want to simplify the issue.

Instead, he advocates voting according to the merits of the constitution, which has been criticised as a return to the days when the elite, the military and those close to the palace - unelected, unaccountable, unopposed - held much power over how the country was run.

But Suthicai's advice is too little, too late. The charter referendum, drawn along the Sonthi-Thaksin battle lines, is already much entrenched in the people's minds.

Appealing to anti-Thaksin sentiments works with the Bangkok intelligentsia, who are still nursing a grudge against him over the Shin Corp deal and their eroding influence, and practically guarantees the passage of the charter.

There is also the religious factor. The Southern Thais are not that fond of him either, remembering the Tak Bai incident, in which 85 Muslim detainees were smothered to death in the back of an army truck during Ramadan.

Rachen Attamart, a Muslim rights activist, says he will be voting yes as well. "They're calling this the Muslim constitution because Sonthi is Muslim. It's not true, but we really don't like Thaksin," he adds.

The only wild card is the urban poor and rural Northern Thais, staunch supporters of Thaksin. But the veiled threat of possible unrest - sowed by the CNS and its followers with announcements of increased security and deployment of thousands of military personnel to various polling stations - should the charter fail to pass, has decreased the odds.

So Thailand, in all likelihood,will get a new constitution, its 18th since 1932. How long it will last, however, is anyone's guess.