Syria and Israel get ready to negotiate

Last week, the Middle East woke up to new hopes for peace. Both Syria and Israel showed signs of accepting a year-long mediation by Turkey. If things go according to Turkish plans, 2008 will become the year of peace in the region. But talking peace while the drums of war are being beaten seems strange.

After the flare-up last September, when Israel attacked an alleged Syrian nuclear installation in the north-east of the country, relations between the two hostile nations seem to be improving a bit.

Analysts with little knowledge about the history of the conflict between Syria and Israel find it difficult to believe that there can be such a dramatic change - from talk of war to talk of peace.

But Turkish diplomats have been very active in negotiations between the two countries. It is worth remembering that Turkish officials launched their mediation efforts in April 2007 - five months before Israel's attack on Syria last year. And the incident did not hinder their efforts.

In an interview with a Qatari newspaper to be published today, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, who assumed power in July 2000 following the death of his father Hafez, confirms that he has received encouraging signals from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and it is up to Israel to translate its words into actions in the near future.

Those close to decision-makers in Damascus said that the preparations are being made in Syria to end six decades of hostility with the Jewish state.

Damascus says Tel Aviv has accepted its one main condition for peace - the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the land that they have occupied since June 1967.

This is not a new condition for peace set by Syria. It has been on the agenda since the launch of the Middle East Peace Conference in Madrid in 1991. On the other hand, the fact that the two countries are very close to achieving peace is not new either.

Assurances

In fact, Syria and Israel have been very close to achieving peace at least twice in the past 18 years. The late Hafez Al Assad was about to sign a peace deal with Israel in Wye Plantation, US in August 1993, after he received assurances on Yitzhaq Rabin's readiness for peace with Syria from then US secretary of state Warren Christopher.

However, the hope for peace died quickly, with Israel's subsequent conditions about the gradual hand-over of territory and the request to the Syrian president to meet Israeli leaders publicly in what they said would be a public commitment to peace.

The hope for peace rose again in 1995 with the Israeli prime minister Rabin again accepting a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights. But the assassination of Rabin in November 1995 and the emergence of Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister eight months later, froze the peace process once again.

So, the question arises: Would Turks succeed in bringing the old enemies to the peace table by encouraging the leaders of the two nations to move forward on the path of peace?

The answer to this question is not simple. The history of the region shows that every time Syria and Israel are close to peace something happens somewhere that changes the course of events for the worse. As a result, there is little cause for optimism.

But can things be different this time? Yes, if the political difficulties faced by both Syria and Israel are taken into account by the Turkish mediators.

Expecting the worse

Although it is not in a desperate situation, Syria is expecting the worse this year - and is preparing for it. Syria is not on good terms with at least half of its neighbours in Lebanon, and the political crisis in Lebanon might easily spill over into Syria.

In addition, Bashar is not on good terms with the leaders in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, and there is still a great deal of suspicion about how the developments in Iraq will affect Syria.

He is also not comfortable with the direction of US policy in the region and there is a general feeling in Syria that the international probe into the assassination of the Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri will be politicised against Syria.

On the one hand, Syrians feel strongly about their alliance with Iran and about the lessons they learned from the July 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Syria feels that the policy of supporting Hamas has been successful. In addition to this, the 2006 war has inspired Bashar and shown him the weaknesses of the Jewish state.

However, a war with Israel has never been an option for Syria's leaders. But no one can rule out the possibility of a war between two countries that have a history of conflict.

On the other hand, Olmert has been weakened after the 2006 war with Hezbollah, and was about to lose his post following the publication of the Winograd Commission report.

A year later, Olmert is not any stronger and is facing genuine problems in Gaza.

Turkish mediators can do all they can for peace in the region, but they will definitely fail if they ignore the different voices in the Middle East. Turkey cannot succeed in its mediation efforts without the blessing of the Americans.

Turkey must look seriously into the forces against peace outside Syria and Israel, and try to tackle them instead of falling prey to them.