Russia is reasserting itself

In 1990, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the triumph of the West over Communism, and in the aftermath of Saddam Hussain's invasion and occupation of Kuwait, former US president George H.W. Bush coined the phrase, "The New World Order". The term became a fixture in world politics for the past two decades, indicating the triumphant victory of the West over the Eastern block and the demise of the Soviet Union, which the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin believes was a geopolitical disaster. That demise ushered in a unipolar international system and the end of the bipolar world.

Bush Sr, envisioned a new world order, "where the rule of law supplants the rule of the jungle. A world in which nations recognise the shared responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where the strong respect the rights of the weak".

That new world order teetered post-September 11, 2001 through asymmetric warfares with state and non-state actors, including the wars against Afghanistan, Iraq and Al Qaida. However, that world status ended on August 8 this year and a new Cold War seems to have set in.

Wrong decision

When Russian troops invaded and occupied neighbouring Georgia under the pretext of defending fellow Russians in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The wrong decision by the pro-West Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to use force in the breakaway provinces provoked Moscow, which was itching to regain its lost glory after years of humiliation and retreat.

It was the act that ended the "New World Order" and put to ruin Francis Fukuyama's argument of the "end of history" and the triumph of the Western liberal democracy over communism as a totalitarian ideology and his bragging of Nato winning the Cold War without firing a shot.

Furthermore, the war in the Caucasus showed how naïve is President George W. Bush's judgment of world leaders. Bush, early in his term, erroneously concluded that he got a "sense of Putin's soul" after looking in his eyes. Putin, earlier this year stepped down as president after eight years in office and took the post of prime minister. "I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy," Bush said. Yet, Putin consolidated his power and ruled with an iron hand, thereby derailing Russian democracy. He hand-picked the new president, Dmitry Medvedev, who after 100 days in office sought to re-establish Russia's sphere of influence and found himself fighting a war that provoked the West, and later recognised the two break-away provinces in Georgia. Russia is eyeball to eyeball with the West, and refuses to back down in reasserting its power.

The US and its allies have become arbiters of world conflict when they bombed Serbia in 1999 and recognised Kosovo early this year. What irks Moscow the most, is the West's encirclement of Russia, with talks of Nato membership to Ukraine and Georgia. It is Russia's pay back time now.

Anthony Cordesman, the head of the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Centre of Strategic and International Studies, opined: "We need to face the fact that the time window in which the Soviet Union was in collapse and China was still a weak and uncertain power is over... Accordingly, if there is any lesson that can be drawn from the fighting in Georgia... America's so-called status as a 'superpower' does not prevent us from living in a multi-polar world in which America's 'real power' is sometimes challenged by Russia and China, and is at other times ignored because they see other strategic interests as more important".

Clearly, Russia's time has come to respond to all the humiliating moves that were dealt to it by the West, led by the US. Russia wants to be taken seriously and recognised as a power. By re-establishing the credibility of its army, Moscow wants to send a clarion message to all the concerned states, from the Caucuses to the Baltic and from Crimean to East Europe, and especially Poland and the Czech Republic, that siding with the West and Nato is no guarantee for their security. The US wants to install ballistic missile and radar Systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, but Russia has warned its neighbours that such a development will increase their risk, and won't make them secure.

Adventure

But the Russian adventure in Georgia could back fire. The West has condemned it for recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russians are also undermining and bullying the Northern Caucasus entities, such as Ingushetia and Dagestan, while it continues to deny independence to Chechnya. All this, could prove costly in the long run.

The Russian invasion of Georgia proved to US allies and foes alike that Washington is incapable of defending its allies. Russia saw a window of opportunity and exploited the US weakness in Iraq, Afghanistan and its global war on terrorism and the US war on non-state actors such as Al Qaida. The bitter facts are clear to all to see. Georgia is still occupied by Russia, and Georgia has not been offered a Nato membership. Moreover, there is tension in the Caucuses and we are on the edge of a new Cold War.

There is a growing feeling of self confidence among the Russian elites. Konstantin Zatulin, a Russian law maker who oversees relations with Russia's former republics, put it best when he insisted, "The time we needed Western applause is over... The West has no options and needs Russia more than Russia needs it. The West can apply psychological pressure. But Europe cannot afford to turn down our gas and America needs our help with Afghanistan and Iran."

What is the future of this new international system and how far is Russia and the West are willing to go in this brinkmanship of high stake politics of resurgent Russia with the West? Are we at a dawn of a new Cold War with proxy wars to foot? And who will blink first?

Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is Professor of International Relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit- Kuwait University.