Pragmatic coalitions

The results of the last two consecutive Lok Sabha polls confirmed the decline of pan-Indian parties and their inability to form governments at the centre without support from regional and state-based parties.

Both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) are illustrative of coalitions that are not ideology-inspired, but formed by parties clustered around two major parties, the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for specific political gains with regard to the constituencies they represent. By forming alliances with well-entrenched regional parties, both these national parties are guided by calculations of electoral victory. The smaller regional parties form alliances with leading national parties for a federal presence while the former agree to join hands with the latter to win office.

The trend continues. On the eve of the fifteenth Lok Sabha poll, the second phase of which begins today, political parties were busy forming alliances regardless of ideological compatibility to ensure victory. There are three players in the field. In addition to the NDA and UPA, a third cluster - christened the Third Front - emerged. The Third Front is not a new phenomenon. With short stints in government, the Third Front survived in the past with outside support.

In this election, the Third Front is a peculiar mixture of the left parties, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), HD Deva Gowda's Janata Dal (S), the Andhra Pradesh-based Telegu Desham Party (TDP) of Chandra Babu Naidu and the Jayalalitha-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). In principle, the Front is open to other parties that are opposed to both the Congress and BJP. It was also believed that the Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party could join the Front given its close proximity with the Left Front constituents. With the inclusion of its archenemy the BSP in the Front, that possibility seems to have disappeared.

This formation is not ideologically cohesive, but is drawn on the principle of 'a common enemy'. There is no doubt that the Third Front will be a critical player in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, simply because its constituents have a strong social base in these states. Given its limited base, one can safely conclude that the Front cannot, under any circumstances, form the government on its own - though its partners will have a key role to play in the formation of a meaningful coalition at the centre by providing numerical support as and when it is required.

The two leading coalitions, the NDA and UPA, are also busy consolidating partnerships with regional parties irrespective of ideological affinity. Although there is a core that probably sustains the formation, both these alliances have also suffered due to the withdrawal of their erstwhile former partners. For instance, the Orissa-based Biju Janata Dal remained a trustworthy partner of the NDA until it decided to fight the Lok Sabha poll independent of the alliance due to disagreements with the BJP over seat-sharing in the state. Similarly, the failure of the BJP to sustain its alliance with the West Bengal-centric Trinamul Congress will surely weaken its prospects in the state. This will obviously adversely affect the NDA tally in the poll, simply because its leading partner, the BJP, lacks an adequate political base to win Lok Sabha seats in either Orissa or West Bengal.

The Congress-led UPA has its own problems. The schism between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress over seat-sharing in Uttar Pradesh will cost the UPA dearly. The situation is worse in Bihar, where the two UPA partners, Rashtriya Janata Dal of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Lok Jan Shakti Party of Ramvilas Paswan formed an alliance disregarding the ambit of Congress.

The three major formations, the NDA, UPA and Third Front, seem to be handicapped, at least according to pre-poll calculations. Since the majority of the partners are not inclined to carry on with former alliances, the situation bedevils any real prospect of making broadly accurate predictions.

- OpinionAsia

Bidyut Chakrabarthy is professor of Political Science at the University of Delhi, India.

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