Overcoming the slowdown in ties

While India and Pakistan are maintaining the agreed schedule of meetings under the rubric of their "composite dialogue", contacts at the highest level that inject life blood into the process are on hold because of the domestic politics of both the countries. Since March, Pakistan has faced considerable turmoil and the hour of decision is not far away. India may also opt for an early election. There is understandable reticence in both the capitals to launch any major initiative at a time when power structures are liable to change.

Against this political backdrop that counsels a wait-and-see policy, a Track Two group of former diplomats, ex-generals, influential newspaper editors and scholars from India, Pakistan and both sides of the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir met in Singapore in the last week of August to consider the slowdown in the peace process and also ideas on to accelerate it. They discussed candidly whether the loss of momentum was attributable only to the internal political dynamics in the two countries or also to other independent causes.

Negative impact

The Pakistani participants did not think that any erosion of President Pervez Musharraf's power would impact negatively on the peace process. They tried to dispel the impression in India that the extra space provided by him for a possible accommodation on contentious issues like Kashmir was personal to him. The viewpoint expressed by me without any serious reservations from other Pakistani interlocutors was that Musharraf had played an important role in transforming the culture of Indo-Pakistan negotiations but the process had acquired a validity of its own and that peace constituencies in both the countries were now strong enough to prevent any backsliding because of foreseeable political changes.

The power-sharing talks between Benazir Bhutto and Musharraf can result in a significant role for Bhutto who has been for years a steadfast exponent of a South Asian rapprochement. The other mainstream contender for power, Nawaz Sharif, had negotiated the Lahore agreements with Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the ideas contained in that summit had provided the basic structure of the present composite dialogue. The centre-right Islamic parties were vigilant on the terms of a settlement but not opposed to it in the context of the present global situation. In India, the BJP should not be expected to unravel a peace process that it helped launch once the dialectics of mid-term elections were out of the way.

On the terms of a settlement on Kashmir, the Singapore moot did not have identical perspectives perhaps because of a deficit in information about the secret negotiations conducted by Ambassador Satinder Lamba of India and the Secretary of Pakistan's National Security Council, Tariq Aziz. Apparently there is less secrecy about them in India. A respected former general of the Indian army told the Singapore group that secret negotiations were close to finding a solution.

From the Pakistani side, what could be confirmed was existence of "non-papers" presented by the two sides that needed to be reconciled into a joint position. On my part, I considered it necessary to mention a feeling in official Islamabad that India was perhaps still not ready for the "final compact". Having built up the expectation that a redeployment of troops from Siachin was imminent, Pakistan's government has found it hard to explain the failure of that project at least so far.

India may be delaying a Siachin agreement because of a trust deficit. In Pakistan there is suspicion that India may have some other strategic objectives which are not easily visualised today but which may threaten a grand reconciliation. Pakistan continues to complain of a lack of adequate reciprocity. There is also a perception that India's dialogue with Kashmiri leaders is not progressing well. At the end of the day, the solution has to be acceptable to the people of Kashmir. While no longer insisting on a plebiscite, Islamabad regards this acceptance as vital to the success of the peace process.

Genuine optimism

The Singapore conversations were informed by genuine optimism. Both countries are mindful of the immediate peace dividend as well as opportunities that a sub-continental rapprochement would provide for projects of immense value such as a precious energy and trade corridor to Central and West Asia. The Pakistani participants emphasised the need for India and Pakistan to work together and not at cross purposes in Afghanistan.

It was encouraging to see Indians and Pakistanis reaffirming the irreversibility of the commitment to peace and the need to accelerate the quest for it as soon as the internal political processes permitted it. Neither side was unduly apprehensive about their outcome as long as it was peaceful and orderly.

Tanvir Ahmad Khan is a former foreign secretary. He wrote this piece specially for Gulf News after attending a Track Two Indo-Pakistan meeting in Singapore.