Of deepening fault lines and a messy leadership row

So the chickens have finally come home to roost for Lal Krishna Advani — the patriarch of India’s principal opposition entity, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Coming close on the heels of the anointing of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial hopeful for the 2014 general elections, Advani’s resignation from all party positions on Monday has thrown the saffron brigade in a tailspin, bringing the hitherto hush-hush Modi vs Advani debate within BJP circles out into public domain like never before.

Truth is stranger than fiction, goes the saying, and how! Way back in 1984, when the BJP was reduced to a mere two-member outfit in the parliament of the world’s largest democracy, it was Advani’s fervent pitch for hardline Hindutva (seeking to establish hegemony of Hindus) that gave the BJP a strong foothold, primarily in northern India, thereby catapulting the party to 182 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls. That marked the pinnacle of success for the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-L.K. Advani combination, with Vajpayee as premier and Advani his trusted general. However, Vajpayee’s moderate stance and inclusive political agenda often came into direct conflict with Advani’s carefully cultivated gung-ho, street-smart, high-pitched rhetoric that was aimed at pandering to the radical elements within the BJP. No wonder it was Advani who was the darling of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh — the core Hindu outfits to which the BJP owes its allegiance right from the cradle. And in the aftermath of the 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat — the worst instance of communal violence in independent India’s history — when Vajpayee was just a step away from sacking Modi, the Gujarat CM, it was Advani’s clout within the party and his staunch backing that granted Modi’s political career a fresh lease of life. Ironically, today the same Advani finds his own political future practically scuppered by none other than Modi. And for that, Advani has only himself to blame.

Of late, there were attempts by Advani to try and rein in Modi’s growing stature within the party and beyond by belittling the Gujarat CM at the drop of a hat — in party meetings as well as at public forum. The former deputy prime minister tried to compare Modi’s Gujarat with the governments in other BJP-run states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. This was done deliberately, keeping in mind that Modi would never be an automatic choice as prime minister for many of the allies of the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP. So Advani’s ploy was to rock Modi’s boat and prevent every attempt at presenting the Gujarat CM as the future face of the party. But the problem is that Advani trying to show Modi in a poor light is like the pot calling the kettle black. Who will ever forget Advani’s much-touted Rath Yatra (chariot run) in October 1990 that left a trail of blood all through its course across India. It was Advani who indeed was the standard-bearer of the BJP’s strident pro-Hindu pitch when the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid issue was searing through the heart of India’s political and social fabric? Advani had done it for petty political gains. So today, when there is a groundswell of support for Modi within the BJP rank and file, Advani finds his own agenda and his brand of politics practically hijacked by the Frankenstein that he himself had helped create.

Fear factor

The problem with the BJP is that Modi himself is such a controversial figure that having him as the prime ministerial candidate speaks volumes about the kind of leadership vacuum that has engulfed the party in the post-Vajpayee era. True, there has been not a single incident of communal violence in Gujarat since the dark days of 2002, but the fact remains that for a vast section of the minority community in India, Modi continues to evoke a fear factor that is best reserved for celluloid fare.

Having said that, Modi’s astuteness as a politician and his popularity within Gujarat as an entrepreneur-friendly administrator have endeared him to a sizeable section of voters in his own state and his success in ensuring an investor-friendly atmosphere in Gujarat has seen his popularity soar with India Inc. These are precisely the reasons why the BJP is so desperate to try out the success of its Gujarat model on a Pan-India platform, cashing in on Modi’s pro-development image. But to what extent the Gujarat wounds have healed, to be able to ensure Modi’s success with a countrywide electorate, is still open to question. The inability to find a suitable successor to Vajpayee and the good-but-not-good-enough tag sticking perennially to leaders such as Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley have made it easier for Modi supporters to build a case.

Advani’s open and almost vitriolic anti-Modi posture is one reality that the BJP had to confront sooner than later. That way, perhaps the silver lining for the party is that it will get to sort out this messy row now, rather than in a murky post-poll scenario.