Lebanon gets a president

What a difference a week makes! Prior to an agreement between the Lebanese government and the opposition announced at Doha last Wednesday, Lebanon teetered on the brink of bankruptcy and civil war.

Today, share prices are rocketing, the gunfire is celebratory and the official residence of Lebanon's President the Baabda Palace, which grandly overlooks Beirut from its hillside perch, is once again spick and span.

Its halls have been gathering dust ever since former President Emile Lahoud's lease was up six months ago leaving a political vacuum in his wake that worsened political turmoil and brought the country's economy to a virtual standstill.

On Sunday, Ba'abda Palace officially got a new incumbent when Lebanon's army chief Michel Suleiman - considered a compromise candidate - was at last sworn-in as president with 118 out of 127 ballots.

Suleiman, a 59-year-old Maronite may not be everyone's first choice but the overwhelming emotion experienced by Lebanese of every faith and faction is one of immense relief. The hope is he will bring unity to the fractured nation.

"I call on you all, political forces and citizens, to build a Lebanon we all agree on, setting the interests of Lebanon above our individual interests. We paid a dear price for our national unity. Let's preserve it," was his first presidential address to his people.

Constitutionally, his first task will be to appoint a prime minister who must be chosen from members of the parliamentary majority. At present only two names are being touted that of the current premier Fouad Siniora and Sa'ad Hariri.

However, Siniora has no interest in being re-appointed saying he believes it's time for a change. In the meantime, he has been asked to stay on in a temporary caretaker role.

Less than a week ago, the differences between the US-backed March 14th camp and the pro-Syrian/Iranian March 8th coalition appeared insoluble mainly because countries pulling strings behind the scenes were tugging in opposite directions.

The final straw came when the Siniora-led government, on the rumoured say-so of Washington, attempted to coerce Hezbollah into dismantling its private communications network and threatened to sack the pro-Hezbollah airport security chief.

The military wing of the Shiite party responded decisively seizing control of the Sunni-dominated West Beirut, torching a pro-government television network and curtailing the movement of senior cabinet members as the army strove to remain neutral.

In a massive but disciplined display of force Hezbollah showed who's boss, forcing the government to back down, which it did using the face saving exercise of appointing its military chief - now President Michel Suleiman - as arbitrator.

He chose to overturn the anti-Hezbollah cabinet decisions when Hezbollah promptly brought the crisis to an end by withdrawing.

In a matter of weeks there has been a seismic shift in Lebanese politics triggered in part by Hezbollah's teeth-baring but this isn't the entire story. Qatar played a powerful role in getting the two sides together and gaining support from its Western allies, Arab friends as well as from Iran with which it has close ties.

Just as it did in the summer of 2006 when it led an Arab delegation to the UN pressing for an immediate Israel/Lebanon ceasefire, it once again punched above its global political weight to reinforce the idea that Arabs can be masters of their own destiny.

Kudos should go to Qatar's Emir Shaikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, who used "skilled diplomacy" to achieve what nobody else could do in eighteen months.

Got the message

In addition, it's likely that Bush's fervently pro-Zionist speech before the Israeli Knesset marking Israel's 60th anniversary played a part in the decision-making at Doha.

Siniora, Hariri and Druze leader Walid Junblatt certainly got the message that when it comes to friendship with the US they are way down in the pecking order. They would certainly have recalled, too, that during Hezbollah's takeover they were alone apart from their own paid militias.

The last persuasive factor was Lebanese public opinion, which was fast concluding that the country's politicians far from solving problems were contributing to them. The message from the street was "don't bother coming home without an agreement".

Political analysts say the biggest losers from last week's Doha agreement are the Bush administration, whose New Middle East plans have suffered a setback, along with its buddies in the Lebanese government.

That assessment is only half true. If March 14th and March 8th can forget their differences long enough to rally behind Michel Suleiman and his new unity government then all Lebanese will be winners.

Admittedly, the biggest winner is the Hezbollah-led opposition which gets to keep its weapons and will hold a power of veto on cabinet decisions. Furthermore, President Suleiman is an ally who regularly praises the resistance for keeping the nation safe.

This all-Arab solution to an all-Arab problem based on the principles of coming together, compromise, forgiveness and reconciliation has so far worked.

Now it's up to the Lebanese to follow through. I think they'll do it this time. They've endured decades of hard times and in recent years they've experienced several close shaves with disaster. It's my guess they've decided there's only one way to go and that's up.

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com