Leaving a difficult legacy

Pakistan's foreign office has cautioned foreign diplomats in Islamabad against getting overtly involved in its internal politics. Their feverish activities reflect primarily the concern of nations battling the Taliban in Afghanistan where they depend heavily on the support of the Pakistani armed forces. The level of Western concern is indicated by the deliberate leaks in Washington that the United States has drawn up a plan to seize and neutralise Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the current crisis descends into chaos. In reality, there is no panic in the country and the signals are mixed ranging from the sangfroid of an establishment engaged in its normal pursuits to deep anxiety in sections of the society alarmed by the manner by which Pervez Musharraf secured another presidential term.

With total nonchalance to internal turmoil as well as external speculation about their strategic weapons, Pakistan's defence scientists have just carried out another missile test. Part of the Hatf series, it was a nuclear-capable "cruise missile" that made the point that the Indian progress in missile interception, made in close collaboration with Israel, would not be allowed to upset the sub-continental strategic balance. The message from the Pakistani military is clear: India and Pakistan are equally entitled to technological development in sensitive fields without any bilateral belligerence and the internal political tussle does not affect the acquisition and demonstration of this technology.

Recently, the armed forces had to send 20,000 regular troops to end the Sharia-based rule imposed by one Maulvi Fazalullah on the picturesque Swat valley. Musharraf recently conceded that more than 1,000 Pakistani soldiers have lost their lives fighting religious extremists in the tribal belt along the Afghan border and elsewhere in that turbulent neighbourhood. Chastened by this huge cost, the army seems to be willing to assert its autonomous approach to the "war on terror" and combine military operations with peace-making agreements with tribes that the West has not favoured in the past.

Insurgency

The Pakistan army is getting over-stretched. The growing pressures exerted on it by religious and ethnic insurgencies and the sheer ambivalence of the West towards its strategic assets exemplified by threats to intervene directly in Pakistan add up to a strong argument for the military to disengage itself from politics and focus on professional excellence. It has to find a way of reconciling this need with the loyalty of its high command to the politics of Musharraf. It is not an easy task as Musharraf lost much support in the political world by a series of ill-advised actions taken in the belief that the armed forces would always underwrite them. Musharraf's reliance on the military led to an irresistible demand at home and abroad that he steps down from the army command.

The last act of Musharraf as the army chief by which he suspended the constitution and proclaimed an emergency has created a constitutional and political nightmare that would haunt Pakistan for some time.

Proclamation of emergency in Pakistan on November 3 did not fit into any lawful pattern. Its duration was too short to link it to a perilous war or rebellion. It was not imposed by the Head of the State and the national parliament had never considered it. It was almost instantaneously rejected by the Supreme Court and seen by the people as a device to end a short spring of judicial activism and media independence. It is being revoked after a dramatic elimination of all possible hurdles in the path of the chief of army staff getting re-elected as president for yet another term. In fact, the more Musharraf tries to justify it, the deeper is the impression that it was a manoeuvre to eliminate independent judges from the higher courts.

This perception has radically changed the challenge to the political parties. They are being increasingly judged by their commitment to reversing the consequences of November 3 and thus Musharraf's re-election. While every major party has produced an elaborate election manifesto detailing policy approaches to internal and external issues of great importance, the burgeoning and vocal civil society, especially the legal fraternity, maintains a sharp focus on removing distortions caused by serial assaults on the 1973 constitution.

There is now a specific demand that political parties make a solemn promise to restore the judges sacked by Musharraf because they declined to take a fresh oath after the suspension of the constitution. This prioritisation led to a movement for the boycott of coming elections. The mainstream parties, except the Jamaat-e-Islami, have resisted this call but continue to face the demand to first curtail Musharraf's powers to resort to arbitrary fiats in future.

On his part, Musharraf is trying hard to retain some features of the emergency rule even when revoking his proclamation of November 3. Therein lie the seeds of future confrontations and crises which would inevitably confront the armed forces now under the command of a largely apolitical professional soldier with unpleasant choices. Without a fair and free election, Pakistan will not be able to break out of the present circle of uncertainty. But even with it, much would depend on the decision its powerful armed forces take on their future involvement in national politics.

Tanvir Ahmad Khan is a former foreign secretary and ambassador of Pakistan.