Iran needs a coherent policy platform

The Iranian government has vowed to keep the genie firmly in the bottle while the opposition promises to unleash it on a grand scale. We are, of course, talking of the ‘Student Day' demonstrations last Monday when tens of thousands of youth rallied on campuses across the nation to vent their anger against the authorities.

The demonstrations were not as large as the opposition had promised. But nor were they as small as the government had hoped. It was clear that the mass of Iranian society is still waiting and watching to see which way the wind blows and which of the protagonists involved in the power struggle in Tehran has a better chance of coming on top.

While the showdown continues — with December 27 fixed as another day for mass demonstrations — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration is facing a potentially more dangerous problem: It is increasingly perceived as rudderless.

The decision-making process is paralysed more or less while the authorities stumble from one crisis to another. The saga is punctuated by one anti-regime demonstration after another.

The latest data published by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) paints a picture of an economic meltdown with double-digit inflation and unemployment wrecking the lives of millions.

One sure sign that the country is in crisis is the dramatic increase in the number of appearances by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The idea that the Supreme Leader should remain shrouded in mystical mystery is cast aside.

In the Khomeinist system, the ‘Supreme Leader' is supposed to be neutral, standing above factions, ready to promote healing and reconciliation. By becoming one of the fighters involved in a power struggle, Khamenei has deprived the system of its principal safety mechanism.

Ahmadinejad has remained true to his reputation as a bull-in-the-china-shop character who cannot conceive of any compromise.

Other regime grandees are caught in similarly wrong and eventually dangerous trajectories.

Low profile

Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani did raise his head above the parapet in a forlorn attempt at promoting compromise. However, with arrows darting towards him from all directions, he decided to withdraw into his cocoon.

The only attempt at promoting reconciliation has come from parliament Speaker Ali Ardeshir Larijani. He has tried to bring some of the protagonists in the power struggle together. He failed because neither Ahmadinejad nor Rafsanjani showed up.

According to analysts, Larijani pursues an even more opportunistic strategy. His hope is that Ahmadinejad and his rivals in the opposition will end up destroying each other, pulling down Khamenei with them. That would pave the way for him to become president while his elder brother Sadeq Ardeshir, presently head of the judiciary, captures the position of ‘Supreme Leader'.

Watching on the sidelines is General Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, the Mayor of Tehran, and one of the most ambitious commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

His game plan is to promote himself as "a national reserve", the providential man, who would step in after politicians and mullahs have torn each other, and the country, apart.

At one level, there is nothing wrong with politicians pursuing power in the context of personal ambitions. The trouble is that with all key figures of the regime engaged in self-survival or power-grabbing exercises, there is no one to captain the ship of the state.

The Ahmadinejad administration is visibly incapable of providing a credible strategy. The president has been unable even to fill some of the vacancies within the top echelons of his administration, a sure sign that he cannot secure the level of consensus needed.

The opposition is equally unable to offer even a glimpse of a coherent policy platform. Saying ‘no' does not amount to a strategy, and periodical protest marches are no substitute for policy.

The picture is even less encouraging on the foreign policy front. Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) overwhelmingly approved a new resolution in which Iran is accused implicitly of lying and cheating. The IAEA had never insulted any of its members in such terms before, and that in spite of efforts by its retiring director Mohammad Al Baradei to give Tehran the benefit of doubt.

The Europeans, always been regarded as too soft on Iran, are beginning to adopt a tougher profile mainly because they believe the regime may be in terminal trouble. And Ahmadinejad is not seizing the opportunities given him by the Obama administration.

Obama is the first US president since Jimmy Carter to have any sympathy for the Islamic revolution and the Khomeinist regime. Yet, Ahmadinejad risks forcing Obama to abandon such illusions about the Islamic Republic.

Ahmadinejad's controversial foreign policy has made Iran the subject of the wildest fantasies. In world capitals, in after dinner chitchat, people talk of who would attack Iran and on what scale as if they were discussing the weather.

So far, both sides in the Tehran power struggle have managed to prevent a bloodbath. However, the current balance of improbabilities cannot be sustained for ever. When all is said and done, the country needs a government that works.

Amir Taheri is an Iranian writer based in Europe.