Iran has only itself to blame

The latest report on Iran's nuclear programme by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Dr Mohammad Al Baradei, was damning in the opinion of many Western analysts.

It fed speculations that Iran might be hiding parts of its programme and may even pursuing nuclear weapons. During a key meeting of the IAEA board in Vienna last week, Al Baradei accused Iran of stonewalling his agency and warned that it may be hiding secret nuclear activities.

"Iran needs to give the agency substantive information to clear up suspicions... We need, however, to make use of all relevant information to be able to confirm that no nuclear material is being used for nuclear weapons purposes", he said.

Al Baradei urged Iran to "implement all measures required to build confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme at the earliest possible date". If Tehran fails to do so, the IAEA "will not be able to provide credible assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran", Al Baradei concluded.

It is not only that Al Baradei seems to have abandoned his cautious tone on Iran, expressing deep frustration by using unusually blunt language, but seems also to be warning that as Tehran shows no signs of giving up uranium enrichment or heeding other international demands, the diplomatic window appears to be closing.

This is exactly the sort of assessment the hawks of the Bush administration have been hoping for. They need an independent international body, such as the IAEA, to exacerbate the fear of the international community about Iran's nuclear intentions and hence justify a tougher action against Tehran.

Hardliners in Washington believe that they still have time -before President George W. Bush leaves the White House - to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities and finish some unfinished businesses. The IAEA's report came as windfall for the Washington's hawks and the policy of the Iranian government is making things even easier for them.

Deterioration

In addition, after the Russian-Georgian conflict and the deterioration of US-Russian relations, Washington is no longer expecting a collective stand by the great powers on Iran. This is likely to lead to more unilateral actions by the Bush administration.

Earlier this month, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran, targeting its shipping industry, by blacklisting the main shipping line and 18 subsidiaries, accusing the maritime carrier of being engaged in contraband nuclear material. The new sanctions were meant to send a strong signal that the outgoing Bush administration is slowly but surely taking strident actions that will effectively tie the hands of the next US president, be that Republican or Democrat.

That was the original plan concerning Iran, but now with the IAEA's report in hand; military action might be contemplated sooner than expected. In the interpretation of the Washington neo-cons, the IAEA's report has in fact undermined the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released earlier this year by 16 US agencies and exonerated Iran from seeking nuclear weapons. At that time, the NIE turned a blow to the advocates of the military option against Iran.

Israel was particularly furious about the US intelligence community and has since been trying to challenge its conclusions. Israel did not expect that Iran will be its main backer in this regard, however.

Iran's elusive attitude in dealing with the IAEA was so frustrating that Al Baradei decided to be more open this time in accusing Iran of illicit nuclear activities and therefore providing justification for tougher measures. If the US opts for military action, Iran has only itself to blame.

Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.