Hope springs eternal

Luchino Visconti's film Il Gattopardo (The Leopard), about the Italian unification movement in the middle of the 19th century in Sicily, made this phrase famous: ‘Change everything so that nothing changes'.

Would it still apply today when people are celebrating the one-year-old Arab Spring?

Libya's various tribes are fighting each other. Muammar Gaddafi has gone, but did the western military intervention bring prosperity to the people? Wait and see.

In Egypt, the army is still in command. Will it change for the sake of the population while minorities are being targeted and the country sinks deeper into recession?

"Let's be optimistic," French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said. He probably never read the words Georges Bernanos wrote: ‘Optimism is a false hope for the use of cowards and idiots'.

When events don't develop the way western democracies would like them to, the Tunisian example is cited, as a mere consolation to those who have suffered. One element, however, has undoubtedly remained constant over the past few months: the importance of words and the use they can be put to, especially in the case of Syria.

Everyone knows what happened to journalists who entered Syria illegally. Edith Bouvier, a journalist from French daily Le Figaro was one of them. One of her French colleagues was killed and she was wounded, but finally escaped to Lebanon. Once in Paris, she talked to President Nicholas Sarkozy, who explained instantly what the situation in Syria was — the complexity of which seems evident to many, but to him.

An international fact-finding mission visited Syria's affected areas in mid-December, meeting with various parties involved in the conflict (their report can be found on the CF2R website).

This was not covered by any mainstream media outlet with the exception of French daily Liberation, where an article that distorted the report was written by a certain Hala Kodmani. Incidentally, she is the sister of the Syrian National Council's public relations head Bassma Kodmani. She just forgot to mention it. So what?

French politics

France is now in the last weeks before the presidential election. Sarkozy, as expected, has turned into an amazing candidate. Any remorse for missed deliveries, wrong attitudes, false promises? None. Only a frontal attack against socialist candidate, Francois Hollande "who lies from morning to evening".

Forgetting his celebrations after winning the 2007 polls, Sarkozy has turned into ‘the candidate of the people against the elite'. One is not sure many people believe him, but he doesn't really care.

The French people, of course, will ultimately decide. But when looking at some of the issues the country should address, such as power sharing, social responsibility, the growing unhealthy relationship between the public and private sectors, ethics etc, the pathetic fight doesn't say much for any kind of hope for the future.

The news is no better in other parts of the world. Greece falls further into recession. In the US, Republican voters are witnessing a titanic fight between two contenders which should make life easier for President Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, Obama seems unwilling to take any risk abroad. The US now seems more willing to listen to their old allies in the Muslim Brotherhood. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may go on saying that he will attack Iran soon — but he is unlikely to do so before American elections and also because Israel rarely warns before attacking.

At the end of the day, are things really getting better? Do the people in Europe or in the US live better? Has the Iranian threat decreased since the crisis in Syria? Are Palestinians moving towards statehood? Probably not, but Visconti's words are very cynical for sure. In this time of the year, when 2012 still has many months left, one would prefer to come back to Bernanos and still consider that ‘hope is a risk which deserves to be run'.

Luc Debieuvre is a French essayist and a lecturer at IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) and the FACO Law University of Paris.