Hariri cannot ignore Syria

US President Barack Obama has decided to send an ambassador to Syria, filling a post that has been vacant since February 2005.

This news was immediately overshadowed, however, by disturbances in Iran and the death of legendary pop icon Michael Jackson.

Although Syria is happy with developments in its relations with the United States, it is concerned with what is happening in Iran and - contrary to what many people believe - adopting a 'wait-and-see' policy when it comes to Lebanon.

When it was revealed that the Hezbollah-led opposition had not triumphed in the elections on June 7, many speculated that Syria saw this as a blessing in disguise.

A Hezbollah victory, after all, would have brought Gulf investment in Lebanon to a grinding halt, and damaged Syria's relationship with the US. Scores of Lebanese politicians would also likely have accused Syria of interfering with the Lebanese elections.

So the election results were pleasing for most parties - including the US, France, and Saudi Arabia. Even Hezbollah's own leaders were not upset as this was not a defeat for the organisation - which emerged victorious in all of its constituencies - but rather a defeat for the coalition of which Hezbollah is a member.

Damascus now has the opportunity to turn over a new page in its relations with the US. Obama has sent special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell to Damascus, and of course a new US ambassador is expected soon.

Everything seems to fit neatly into what US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently described as a "road map" to improve relations between Syria and the US.

However, anybody who thinks that Damascus would have wanted the elections in Lebanon to turn out this way does not really understand what it means for the March 14 coalition to assume legislative and executive powers in Lebanon.

Nothing could be more worrying for the Syrians, who will likely seek some kind of guarantee from Obama that the coalition will not be used, as has been the case since 2005, to destabilise Syria.

Many are worried that the appointment of 39-year old Sa'ad Hariri as prime minister-designate of Lebanon, spells trouble for Syrian-Lebanese relations, and for Hezbollah's standing inside Lebanon.

The Hezbollah-led opposition agreed to Hariri's appointment - perhaps unwillingly - shortly after March 14 helped re-elect Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri as speaker of parliament. While in public the two camps are showering each other with praise, one hears a very different tone in private discourse.

March 14 is not pleased that Berri has been re-elected, as it would rather have seen the post go to 34-year-old journalist Oqab Saqr. For its part, the opposition is unhappy with the appointment of Hariri.

The need for cooperation has benefited Hariri and Berri, but it remains to be seen where things go from here. Since 2006, Hezbollah has demanded veto power.

The organisation fears that without this power, the international tribunal into the assassination of Rafik Hariri will target it and Syria.

Shortly before the elections, an alarming report was published in the German magazine Der Spiegel, pointing fingers at Hezbollah. To appease Hezbollah, the March 14 camp has not mentioned the tribunal since. But the issue will resurface once Sa'ad Hariri becomes prime minister.

According to various media reports, Hariri is willing to grant veto powers to President Michel Sulaiman, but not to Hezbollah and its ally, Member of Parliament Michel Aoun.

Reportedly, Hariri will grant 15 portfolios to his March 14 coalition, 10 to the Hezbollah-led opposition and five ministers will be chosen by the president.

With no veto power and only 10 ministries, the Hezbollah-led opposition's role in the government is likely to be little more than ceremonial. All options are currently on the table.

One is for Hezbollah to accept posts in the new Cabinet and walk out if Hariri brings up the subject of disarming Hezbollah.

Another is for Hezbollah to boycott the Cabinet and attempt to put pressure on Hariri through street protests and armed struggle, as it did with his predecessor Fouad Siniora in 2006-08.

Weeks before Hariri's appointment, a report was published in the Beirut daily Al Akhbar saying that the Syrians were renovating the mansion belonging to the late Rafik Hariri in Damascus, seemingly implying that Sa'ad Hariri was preparing to visit the Syrian capital.

While this may sound implausible - given the bad blood between the Syrians and Hariri - he cannot help but visit Damascus if he becomes prime minister. Every Lebanese prime minister since 1943 - even Siniora - has made the trip.

This will be Hariri's first term as prime minister and he will want to make it a successful one. He will be leading a country that has three borders - with the Mediterranean Sea, Israel and Syria.

He simply cannot ignore the Syrians. As a statesman, he will have responsibilities and duties towards Lebanon's only Arab neighbour - despite being the son of a slain premiere. By making the trip, he could help to ease tensions between the two countries.

Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.