Gilani's credentials will be tested

After nearly nine years of military and quasi-military rule under President Pervez Musharraf, finally Pakistan is basking in the sunshine of a successful transition to the democratic process.

The February 18 general elections proved to be a massive protest vote against authoritarianism. The two main oppositional parties, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), proved to be the main winners: securing 120 and 90 seats respectively in the National Assembly comprising altogether 342 members.

The secular Awami National Party (ANP) from the strategic North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) on the Afghan border also did well while rightwing Islamist parties were wiped out. The main pro-Musharraf party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), also suffered a major loss, winning only 51 seats.

Both the PPP and PML-N had deep grievances against Musharraf. The PPP leaders Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were charged under him with massive corruption; Zardari spent several years in prison, while Bhutto went into self-imposed exile. In October 1999, Musharraf overthrew the government of the PML-N chief, Nawaz Sharif, and exiled him to Saudi Arabia.

Bhutto returned to Pakistan in October and Sharif in November through pressure from the US and Saudi Arabia respectively.

The PPP and PML-N were bitter rivals in the past, but decided to form a broad-based coalition government, which also includes the ANP as well as the pro-Musharraf Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F).

After several weeks of intense political manoeuvre, on March 22 Yousuf Raza Gilani was nominated as the PPP candidate.

He was elected on March 24 securing 264 votes while the PML-Q candidate, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, received only 42 votes. Gilani was sworn in by Musharraf on March 25 but Zardari, Sharif and several other leaders did not attend the ceremony, presumably to protest Musharraf's continuation as president - Musharraf had himself elected as president on October 6, 2007 by the outgoing members of the national and provincial assemblies packed with his supporters.

Gilani hails from southern Punjab. He is a trusted aide of the late Bhutto and served as a federal minister when she was prime minister for the first time (1988-1990).

In her second stint as prime minister (1993-1996), Gilani was elected Speaker of the National Assembly, a post he held till February 1997. He was arrested on February 11, 2001 on charges of misuse of office while serving as speaker. He was released on October 7, 2006.

There is widespread speculation that Zardari will soon get himself elected to the National Assembly through a by-election and replace Gilani as prime minister, but other reports suggest that the PPP wants to retain him as prime minister for the full term until 2013, provided he acquits himself as a competent and effective prime minister.

His stay in office will naturally also depend on the stability of the coalition government.

Among the first orders Gilani issued after getting elected as prime minister was the removal of all hindrances on the movement of the deposed Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, and other judges of the Pakistan Supreme Court.

For several months now these honourable judges of Pakistan's Supreme Court have virtually been kept in detention on the orders of the Musharraf regime.

One can expect his government to act determinedly to curtail the extraordinary powers acquired by the president over the years through different constitutional and legal subterfuges that empower him to dismiss an elected government. Sharif insists that Musharraf should resign, but the PPP wants this matter to be debated by parliament.

However, a resolution should soon be passed by his government quashing the removal of the chief justice and other judges of the Supreme Court who were deposed by Musharraf last year.

Recurrent action

The new government will have to devise a new policy to deal with the menace of extremism and terrorism. Musharraf immediately joined the "war on terror" after 9/11.

Consequently, in the years that followed, the Pakistan military was involved in recurrent action against Al Qaida operatives in Pakistan as well as against Taliban strongholds in the tribal belt on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

This act greatly antagonised the pro-Islamist sections of Pakistani society, including retired army officers and even some still serving.

The result has been escalating violence including recurring suicide bombings. The terrorists have in particular targeted military and security personnel and installations.

Both the PPP and PML-N are committed to an end to terrorism, but they want to probe if, through a dialogue, the extremists can be persuaded to abandon violence. This change in strategy may not appeal to the US, which perceives Sharif as sympathetic to conservative Islamic ideas.

On the other hand, Musharraf has more readily obliged with US demands for stern action against the militants. Therefore the US is trying very hard to convince the new Pakistani government to co-operate with Musharraf rather than seek his removal.

The American ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Patterson, has been very actively involved in talks, on the one hand with Musharraf and, on the other, with Zardari and Sharif in search of some formula that could defuse the current stand-off between the two sides.

Also, Deputy US Secretary of State John Negroponte arrived in Islamabad to assist in the search for a truce.

Zardari is believed to be more amenable to the American overtures than Sharif.

In any event, neither Zardari nor Sharif is at present a member of the National Assembly. Zardari did not contest the elections while Sharif was debarred from contesting them. However, it is very unlikely that Gilani will work out some separate deal with the Americans.

He owes his high office to the goodwill of Zardari and approval of Sharif and other coalition partners.

Zardari overruled some other strong candidates for the prime minister's post, including Makhdoom Ameen Fahim, who for a long time was considered the frontrunner.

There are other factions too in the PPP which can challenge Gilani. Under the circumstances he would not risk displeasing the coalition leaders and thus jeopardise his position as prime minister.

Will the coalition government commit itself to genuine democracy, treat the opposition with respect as is expected of a responsible government, and establish a honest and transparent government?

This remains to be seen, but if long years of repression at the hands of the military have not made the democratic parties wise enough to seize this moment, then it can only prolong the morass Pakistan has found itself in since the turn of the century.

Ishtiaq Ahmad is Professor of Political Science and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore.