Comment: Will the Beirut circus end?

Do not be afraid" were the words of the Maronite patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir addressing the Lebanese on Christmas.

At first glance, however, the Lebanese do not seem afraid - not a bit. Despite all the turmoil they are going through, they still managed to put up their Christmas trees, go to nightclubs, dine at fancy restaurants and attend their diva Fairuz in her classic performance of Sah Al Nawm last month.

Afraid is the wrong word. Instead, Sfeir should have said "insecure" because more than ever the Lebanese are indeed very insecure, not knowing what the future holds for them, given the open-ended political crisis that has gripped Lebanon since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Harriri in February 2005.

Economic conditions are terrible, especially since the latest Israeli war. Political conditions are also terrible - to say the least - given the massive demonstrations launched by Hezbollah and General Michel Aoun against the cabinet of Prime Minister Fouad Al Siniora since last December 1.

Not many expected Hezbollah to live up to the demonstrations. Not many expected its ministers to resign from the Siniora cabinet, at a time when Hezbollah's ally Nabih Berri was in Tehran and its other ally, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, was re-engaging in talks with the British concerning Syria's role in a variety of Middle East affairs.

After a glimpse of hope in Syrian-American relations, they plummeted once again due to Hezbollah's coup against Siniora.

Even worse, however, nobody expected Siniora to insist on keeping his post, with thousands of Lebanese now entering their month of protests against him and the March 14 coalition that he represents.

Meanwhile, while Siniora held on to the office of the prime minister, Emile Lahoud did the same at Baabda Palace, refusing to budge until his constitutional term expires next November 24.

Both accuse each other of being "illegitimate". Siniora's team claims that Lahoud was kept at his job due to Syrian meddling in September 2004, accusing him of being a creation of Damascus.

Hezbollah, on the other hand, accuses Siniora of being a puppet of the Americans, the French and Saudis. There are other Sunnis fit for the job, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last September and his Al Manar TV made it a point to shed light on pre-Siniora prime ministers, including Riyad Al Sulh, Rashid Karameh and Saeb Salam, to ward off any fears that the divide was becoming Shiite versus Sunni.

Gassan Tweini, the veteran publisher of An-Nahar, lamented the situation in Lebanon saying that if the United States, France, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran all agreed, then there would be no problems in Lebanon.

His words are true. It is a war by proxy in Lebanon, fought by all the mentioned states, through Sa'ad Al Hariri, Fouad Al Siniora, Samir Gagegea, Hassan Nasrallah, Nabih Berri and Michel Aoun.

Given such a situation, there is nothing to assure the insecure people of Lebanon. Given such a situation there is nothing to prevent the Lebanese from being unafraid or insecure except the comforting - but meaningless - words of the patriarch.

Great deal of shame

Who is responsible for the circus in Lebanon? True, both Lahoud and Siniora share a great deal of blame for selfishly holding on to their posts, with little regard for ordinary Lebanese who are paying the price for the rivalries of their political leadership.

Lahoud's post was indeed renewed by the Syrians, but who were the deputies who approved the decree in parliament? They were, among others, Walid Junblatt, Siniora and Marwan Hamadeh.

In fact, the greatest okay - with reservations - came from none other than Hariri himself. All of them, in theory, share the blame for having him in Baabda.

Aoun, however, who was far away at his Paris exile, does not. Although by all means Siniora is a highly qualified politician - who unlike Lahoud, was voted into power.

He nevertheless cannot continue ignoring the fact that at least half of the population - to say the least - no longer want him as prime minister. Both men should have stepped down long ago to avoid this crisis.

When March 14 got a chance to oust Lahoud one year ago, and promised to do so by mass demonstrations similar to those taking place today, they fell short of doing it.

They feared - among other things - that if Lahoud left office then Aoun would replace him as president. And bringing Aoun to power means a strong-minded leader who most probably would overshadow his Sunni prime minister.

Hassan Nasrallah firmly believes that if elections took place today then the March 14 coalition would not win a majority vote, arguing that the only reason they did in 2005 was due to the emotional outburst created from the assassination of Hariri. That may be true, but nor would Aoun's team win a majority anymore.

Nasrallah has also turned down a package made by the Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa, which basically calls for the creation of an enlarged cabinet, with 19 ministers from March 14, 10 from the opposition and one independent.

The proposal was welcomed by March 14. Angering the ruling clique, however, Mousa also said from the gates of Baabda Palace: "President Lahoud should continue his term as stated in the constitution." This came as a shock to March 14.

It might be too early to judge the presidential race since the Lebanese do not know what will happen in 24 hours, in order for them to plan 10 months in advance. According to the Hezbollah declarations, today will be a turning point in their demonstrations. It is unclear if the strike will be for a day or open-ended.

While the anti-Siniora team is preparing for the strike, the prime minister is busy preparing for the donor conferences, known as Paris III, on January 25. It is expected that he will request $5-$8 billion in grants, but probably get no more than $2-$5 billion from the Arab Gulf.

Amr Mousa will return to Beirut after Paris III. Perhaps by then, all parties concerned will have come to their senses to accept his package, known as "19+10+1".

Twenty years ago, former president Amin Gemayel proposed the creation of a permanent position for the Shiites, in addition to heading parliament, as vice-president of the republic (a post that never existed in Lebanon).

Perhaps if the idea is re-visited today, given the Shiite power in Lebanon and adopted with 19+10+1, then the circus - and the nightmare - in Lebanon, will come to an end.

Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.