Bloody drama of Bhutto's return

A lasting signature left by the independence movements of the South Asian sub-continent on history is the expression of popular will in huge processions and mammoth gatherings. Paradoxically, this phenomenon was powerful because it was peaceful.

In Pakistan's later history, late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was probably more successful than any other politician in attracting large crowds and then mesmerising them with his populist rhetoric. His lasting legacy is an enduring self-awareness of millions of poor people.

Pakistan has been frequently ruled by the armed forces. All such periods of military dominance were marked by a deep distrust of occasions that bring people together.

Pakistan's military has always preferred to depoliticise Pakistan. When the intentions were honourable, depoliticisation was considered to promote public good by creating a tranquil environment for development.

In actual practice, it has produced a void - an emptiness of spirit - that became a hindrance and not an incentive to a progressive and harmonious society.

With his characteristic candour, Musharraf has conceded more than once that his eight-year long absolute rule has brought economic development but weakened the federation.

Benazir Bhutto has often been faulted for not being a good manager of economy though she can rightly claim that she played an innovative role in modernising and liberalising it.

Her forte has been a mystical relationship with the people which, in her judgement, fostered democracy and national integration. The first great manifestation of it was her triumphant return to Pakistan in 1986 when in the city of Lahore more than a million people turned up to welcome her.

The conventional wisdom in the country was that her image had been tarnished beyond repair by several legal cases the government had energetically pursued against her in Pakistan and abroad.

In the months during which she negotiated with President Musharraf, observers in Pakistan thought that she would be one of the many forces, all limited by a lack of mass support, around the bastion of power held pre-eminently by Musharraf.

Bhutto's magnificent return on Thursday was marred by a great human tragedy which threatens to rip Pakistan's polity apart. The welcome exceeded that of her return in 1986. The fervour of a huge crowd beckoned to a bygone era of mass politics.

Bhutto was once again transfigured into a symbol of hope and change. She herself was moved to tears. A mighty flow of hundreds of thousands of people towards Jinnah's place of eternal rest lifted her politics from the controversies surrounding her secret dialogue with a military ruler.

But then the joyous carnival of her ecstatic supporters turned into a massacre as two separate loads were exploded presumably by suicide members in quick succession dangerously close to the truck on which Bhutto stood.

As the death toll increased by the minute and the screams of the wounded drowned the drummers celebrating Bhutto's return , Pakistan's hopes of a smooth and peaceful transition to full democracy receded.

Positive side

It is a complex phenomenon that has many layers. First on the positive side, she had demonstrated that her charisma had survived years of adverse propaganda campaigns.

People still relate to her spontaneously and express joy at finding her in their midst. Secondly, it was another important phase in re-politicising Pakistan. This exhibition of street power was the opposite of what the armed forces have been trying to achieve for the last eight years.

Popular sentiment on such a vast scale signified a process that may be autonomous of the controlled enterprise of "national reconciliation" worked out by Musharraf and Bhutto. Third, it revived the message of the lumpen proletariat in the milling crowds.

As Pakistan's young TV reporters asked people why they had come to greet Bhutto, their answer was that she would create employment, mitigate poverty and empathise with their sorrows.

Bhutto has so far mostly talked about restoration of democracy and perils of religious extremism. Many in Pakistan were apprehensive that Bhuttos's repeated challenge to the militants and terrorists showed a certain gap in her knowledge of the current Pakistani situation.

The war on terror has injected a new element of brutality in its political contests. The militants accepted the challenge. In recent months they have demonstrated that the state cannot stop them from hitting targets far beyond the north western tribal belt.

The exile has come back to claim her kingdom. But the land has many blighted spots. It is divided as seldom since 1970. The international milieu circumscribes its choices and its sovereignty.

Pakistan demands the highest level of statesmanship in balancing its internal realities with external expectations. Its domestic and foreign policies are entangled and Bhutto will have to rise to great heights of wisdom and leadership to steer the ship of the state.

The Karachi carnage will condition her politics. If she focuses on the socio-economic reforms that her real supporters demand, she would imperil the vested interests of Pakistan's class-driven establishment which would seek to restrict her victory in the forthcoming elections.

She cannot probably be denied a third term as prime minister but she will face increasing pressures from within the country and abroad to pursue policies that do not resonate well with the people.

Musharraf will not sit back as a constitutional president and even if elected prime minister, Bhutto would have limited space for fulfilling her democratic agenda. Despite the horrific bombings, there is an opportunity to create a new dynamism in the society.

But for her, the forthcoming general election may turn out to be a sterner test of her political acumen than even her blood -soaked re-entry into Pakistan's politics.

Tanvir Ahmad Khan is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan.