Beyond South Waziristan

Pakistan's campaign to flush Taliban militants from the country's South Waziristan region near the Afghan border can have only one logical end: a military defeat of the Taliban.

This is indeed the inevitable conclusion to a campaign that has already been dubbed the battle for the soul of Pakistan.

Given the mismatch between Pakistan's army of more than half a million men equipped with an array of weapons, who are up against an estimated 10,000 Taliban militants in South Waziristan armed mainly with small- to medium-sized arms, the odds are in the military's favour.

Yet, winning the battle at hand may not ensure a decisive victory in the long-drawn-out war against religious militancy, which has emerged as Pakistan's biggest challenge.

Turning the tide of the Taliban militancy will require a sustained military effort.

Reforms

While Pakistan's ruling elite will have to support the military, the success of this effort will also depend in good measure on successfully undertaking political and economic reforms to guard against a backlash.

There is much to be said about the linkages between militancy and the plight of millions of impoverished Pakistanis. By some estimates, almost one third of Pakistan's total population of 180 million lives below the poverty line. Consequently, there are many potential militants among Pakistan's population.

One of the major issues is the failure of successive governments to revamp the network of public sector government schools. This is preventing students from impoverished homes embarking on successful careers.

Without a strong effort to improve qualitative and quantitative access to education at subsidised rates, widespread illiteracy will only contribute further to the country's security woes. There is ample evidence from a vast number of countries around the world that improving education contributes greatly to the success of new policies.

Another key contributor to improved security is economic policy. For too long, Pakistan has remained in disarray, principally because of its failure to ensure the full translation of economic policies into benefits for the country's grass roots population.

Ironically, while Pakistan's econ-omic growth rate has surged in previous years, its human indicators, by comparison even to its south Asian peers, have clearly remained unimpressive. Investments made in revamping the country's infrastructure for the benefit of Pakistan's impoverished population have either not reached the grass roots or have done so only in a piecemeal fashion.

For too long, efforts to revive Pakistan's economy have essentially sought to carry out land reforms to address poverty in rural areas. But experience has shown that such land reforms will not work in Pakistan's case.

On the one hand, Pakistan simply does not have the financial capacity to subsidise small farms, which stand at the core of the land reform formula. On the other hand, Pakistan is a vast enough country with resources that can be exploited for the benefit of its people.

Policy implementation

The fundamental questions at the heart of Pakistan's challenge are essentially all about policy implementation, in tandem with quality management. History has demonstrated that when Pakistan's top leaders have put their minds to achieving an objective, success has eventually come.

The most widely quoted example of this track record is Pakistan's success in becoming the world's only Muslim state armed with nuclear weapons. The counter argument to this is that the country has failed to produce so much as a good quality bicycle.

The battle to defeat the Taliban is all about setting a new course for Pakistan, more than 62 years after it was created as a safe haven for the Muslims of South Asia. Today, it is anything but.

- Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.