Barack Obama may soon need a policy reboot on Syria

Barack Obama must feel stranded between a rock and a hard place — judging by his noncommittal public responses — whether his administration will deal more sternly now that Syria has seemingly crossed the “red line” in using chemical weapons, namely the sarin gas which was reportedly detected in merely two separate samples taken from Syrian victims of recent clashes. The New York Times conceded that “Obama backed himself into a corner when he warned Bashar Al Assad that using chemical weapons would constitute a ‘red line’ and be a ‘game changer’, suggesting strongly and perhaps unwisely that crossing that line would trigger some kind of American action.”

Obviously, the American president’s antagonists, the likes of Republican senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, have since jumped on a bandwagon, lambasting Obama for failing to promise more effective weaponry to the splintered rebellion in Syria, a country that borders several key states in the region — Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq. The two senators and their fellow travellers seemed unaware of the fact that Syria’s neighbours feel threatened by the turmoil. An emerging right-wing regime in Damascus, run by divided Islamists, can create havoc in the Middle East.

The bloody situation in Syria, now in its third year, has so far led to more than 70,000 deaths, and more than two million have escaped to neighbouring Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon. The civil war shows no signs of ending in the near future and there are indications that it can bring still more problems as witnessed earlier this week when a car bombing narrowly missed Syria’s Prime Minister, Wael Al Haliki.

To be fair to the American president, he did admit that there is evidence that chemical weapons were used, but “we don’t know when they were used, how they were used,” adding “we don’t know who used them, we don’t have a chain of custody” that establishes exactly what happened. He then seemingly dropped the gauntlet: If it can be established that the Syrian government used chemical weapons, “we would have to rethink the range of options that are available to us,” pointing out that they are “on the shelf right now that we have not deployed”.

Crucial fact

So far, Americans are not favourable for an American intervention by foot soldiers in Syria. A recent New York Times/ CBS opinion poll finds that 62 per cent of Americans say the US has no responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government forces and anti-government groups. However, a broad 70 per cent majority favours the use of remotely piloted aircraft or drones to carry out bombings against suspected terrorists in foreign countries — a suggestion that is likely to be scorned in the Arab world, as it has been elsewhere.

No wonder Americans, by and large, do not favour seeing their troops on the ground in Syria, since the results of the earlier American military intervention in neighbouring Iraq have been shocking. As of May 29, 2012, according to the US Department of Defence casualty website, there were 4,409 total American deaths and 31,928 wounded.

On the other hand, the US government has been the largest provider of humanitarian aid to Syrians — to the tune of some $400 million (Dh1.47 billion). Aid to selected Syrian rebel groups has recently been doubled, amounting to $250 million.

What is bewildering, if not frustrating, is the failure of rebel groups to seriously join hands in the uprising within Syria and the crucial fact that the Al Assad regime still has a large following within the country. King Abdullah of Jordan warned last week, during a visit to Washington, of a “fragmentation of Syrian society” probably leading to various fiefdoms.

Consequently, the only reasonable solution is to marshal other governments and seek a UN intervention. It thus may be worthwhile to send the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, to Moscow and work out a mutually agreeable settlement with the Russians who have been supportive of the Al Assad regime. Otherwise, Obama may feel compelled to stand up and be counted sooner rather than later.

George S. Hishmeh is a Washington-based columnist. He can be contacted at ghishmeh@gulfnews.com