Arab states to go nuclear?

Some Middle East states, including Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and Saudi Arabia, have shown initial interest in (attaining) nuclear power, primarily for desalination purposes," said the deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Tomihiro Taniguch. The UAE and Tunisia have also "shown interests in pursuing similar plans".

The story, which broke last week through The Middle East Economic Digest, sort of came and left without receiving significant mention in the regional press. Some even dismissed it as a conspiracy theory.

But according to the deputy general of the IAEA, Arab countries are now contemplating a step in the nuclear direction.

The announcement comes at a time when Iran is advancing its uranium enrichment technology and this could be the impetus for the Arab interest. Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, fear a nuclear Iran and the prospect of a radical shift in the regional balance of power. It also comes many years after Israel first acquired its nuclear weapons in the 1960s.

Declarations of nuclear intent mark a significant change in tone for the Saudis, who have consistently cautioned about the dangers of spreading atomic technology and called for the Middle East to be a nuclear-free region. Earlier this year, Prince Saud Al Faisal, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, said he was opposed to all nuclear expansion in the Middle East and called for a nuclear free region that is clear of an arms race threat.

Egypt is also worth particular note, having only abandoned a nuclear project 20 years ago. It would be further down the road towards an active programme than other Arab countries and, as such, probably be the first to get nuclear reactors up and running. President Hosni Mubarak has already met with Russia and struck a deal with China to cooperate on the use of civilian nuclear power, following his meeting with his Chinese counterpart President Hu Jintao last week.

Special case

Amr Hamzaway, senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, singled out Saudi Arabia as a special case. Flush with oil reserves it doesn't need nuclear energy, he said. Rather, atom-splitting technology for the Saudis is all about increasing political power, now that the American protection they relied on for the last decade has been undermined by US difficulties in the Middle East.

Reduced American influence, and the Saudi's desire to dominate the Middle East, make a nuclear programme attractive. And, according to Hamzaway, the US could not automatically veto the plan. "The Saudis do not have to seek permission but, instead, they have to reach consensus," he said.

Under international law, all nations are entitled to pursue nuclear knowledge under the proviso it is for peaceful ends, so at least in theory, no one can object too strongly. Whether the West will, in practice, be indifferent to nuclear Arab states is another matter.

America has also proved itself impotent - or complicit - in the face of other countries recently going nuclear: Pakistan, India, and now, North Korea. The US never wanted them to have nuclear weapons but they were unable to prevent it happening.

Hamzaway attributes new Arab attitudes to a "changing power constellation internationally" and the increased room for manoeuvre now that Pakistan and India have the bomb. He also underlines another motivation: Arab states fear a grand new regional design with two powerful nuclear players, Iran and Israel. "The Arab region is waking up," he said.

For America, a powerful Saudi Arabia might act as a counter balance to growing Iranian influence. A nuclear Egypt is a different proposition, if only because it's much closer to Israel. Hamzaway says the US would find it very difficult to see Egypt acquire nuclear energy, despite any promises it may make about peaceful intent.

If Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and the UAE follow through on these tentative nuclear inquiries, the Middle East will be entering its most perilous period. In a region where wars flare up with alarming deadly regularity, a nuclear endowed Israel would be staring across its disputed borders at an Arab world that can actually stare back.