American voters have a choice

On November 4, Americans will elect their new president. They will have a real test as they will have to choose between two very different characters, John McCain for the Republicans and, very probably, Barack Obama for the Democrats. Both men distinguish themselves not only by their political membership, their generation and their skin colour. They also have a very different vision of the kind of relations the United States should have with the rest of the world. Although they share the principle of the priority to restore the image of the country, which has been considerably degraded during Bush's two mandates, the solutions they propose are completely opposed.

Obama, one of the very few Americans opposed to the war in Iraq, is in favour of a rapid pullback of American forces from Iraq. He only wants to preserve a residual force. He considers that maintaining a massive American military force allows Iraqis to shirk facing their internal political problems.

McCain, a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, has taken position against the use of torture and in favour of adhering to the Geneva conventions. But though he opposed Bush on this matter, one should not conclude that his foreign policy would be radically different. The republican candidate declared that, if needed, the Americans would stay in Iraq a hundred years. He is not only opposed to the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, but he is also favourable to a reinforcement of the American military presence in order to win the war definitely.

Traumatised

McCain belongs to the traumatised generation of the lost Vietnam war, and therefore cannot stand another capitulation. He is a proponent of an American power based on military supremacy. He plans to increase significantly the American military budget, which already represents 50 per cent of the world defence spendings. He pleads for an alliance of democracies which could possibly act militarily disregarding the UN constraints (characterised by the hypothetic Russian or Chinese veto). He is also in favour of a military option against Iran (he even appeared on TV singing "Bomb, bomb, Iran" on a Beachboys melody). According to him, Islamist extremism is the foremost enemy of the United States, and he plans to fight against it mainly through military means.

McCain is not a neoconservative, but rather some kind of "jacksonist", in reference to the jack-booted and expeditious methods of president Andrew Jackson (1829-1837). He is not intending to export democracy; he just aims at promoting Washington's interests, including through strong means. He will not hesitate to lead a foreign policy based on American power considerations. Observers brag McCain's experience, but this does not keep him from making crass mistakes, as for instance last week when he declared several times that Iran was endorsing Al Qaida in Iraq, and therefore insured that a Shiite country was backing a Sunni terrorist group. McCain is also not prone to give up the principle of preventive war implemented by Bush, with the success we know.

Although he does not exclude the possibility of a military option against Iran, Obama is willing to hold talks with Iran. Therefore he dissents not only from Bush's policy, but also from Hillary Clinton's programme. Indeed, he considers there should not be any taboo consisting in refusing to have a dialogue with potential adversaries.

According to him, the refusal to discuss tends to reinforce extremists such as the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He considers the priority for Washington is Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the war on Al Qaida is to be lead. Obama has a vision of a world facing a deep mutation. In such a configuration, the use of force is not systematically a good means to resolve every problem, and moreover it sometimes contributes to feed tensions. He is convinced the United States have to prioritise their potential of attraction instead of their capacity of duress.

Friends of Israel

On the other hand, both candidates presented themselves as friends of Israel, considering the security of this country as a priority. They refuse to negotiate with Hamas as long as it is not officially recognised by Israel. But Tel Aviv is clearly backing McCain, fearing that Obama would be too reticent to use force.

If elected, Obama would probably not be able to lead a policy as multilateral as he wants. He will have to face resistance from Congress and pressure groups. For McCain, it would be easier to implement his programme. This is not reassuring, quite the contrary.

Dr Pascal Boniface is the founder and director of IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratagiques). He has published or edited more than 40 books dealing with international relations, nuclear deterrence and disarmament, European security and French international policy.