America is not leaving Iraq anytime soon

Negotiations over the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq have been on-going for over 10 months and are claimed to be drawing to a close. Allegedly, all that remains is for the Iraqi parliament to "cross the T's and dot the I's" and get the leaders of both countries to sign off on the deal. But buried within the 27-point agreement are various caveats that will not only allow a continued presence of US troops in Iraq, but also granting any of the US troops serving in Iraq, past present or future, immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law. This is important because the US has also declined to sign the UN International Criminal Court Treaty, thereby effectively thwarting any attempt by the UN or another nation from bringing to the ICC what are perceived as war crimes or similar. And because the US has shown a marked reluctance to prosecute to the full those soldiers accused of contravening the Geneva Conventions, it indicates the probability that more troops will be able to avoid prosecution in the future.

Although the US has stated that it is likely they will quit Iraq in three years, it must not be assumed that in quitting, Iraqis will see the last of US troops in their country. For a start, the agreement allows for specialised troops to remain to continue with the training of the Iraqi army, although it is possible that by then, Iraqis could just as well do the training. But underlying the reason for staying is the need of the US for a continued presence in the Middle East with as many countries as possible. In times of trouble, most Arab nations welcome a US presence, but not at other times. But as the US needs to keep watch on Arab oil resources, the Middle East has no choice but to accept the situation.