Short-cut to square one

With India blaming “elements in Pakistan'' for engineering terror strikes in Mumbai and Islamabad warning New Delhi against “playing politics'', the ties between the two countries are headed for a prolonged winter, diplomats and analysts fear.

“All fingers point to the LeT's [Lashkar-e-Taiba's] involvement,'' Satish Chandra, a former envoy of India to Pakistan, told IANS. Chandra said India should make it “painful and costly'' for Pakistan to sponsor such attacks.

“How can you have good relations with a country which is doing such things? The Indian government is turning a blind eye to it. ... We need to take firm action against Pakistan,'' Chandra said.

The LeT, a banned militant outfit, is widely seen by India as a creation of Pakistan's spy agency ISI with a specific mandate to carry out terror strikes in India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, which both countries claim.

The terror strikes in Mumbai, which killed 183 people and left more than 300 injured, came days after Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari warmed the hearts of Indians by saying there is “a little bit of India in every Pakistani'' and offered a deal on not to be the first to use nuclear weapons.

New Delhi has blamed “elements in Pakistan'' for the attacks and told Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qureshi who was then visiting India that Islamabad needed to take “immediate action'' and honour its January 6, 2004, pledge that Pakistani territory would not be used as a launchpad for terror strikes.

Pakistan was quick to deny any link and offered India cooperation in investigating the incident.

In an interview, Zardari assured India that if any evidence was found linking any individual or group in Pakistan to the attacks, he would take the “strictest action'' against them.

Initial investigations reveal that the modus operandi adopted in the Mumbai attacks bore the hallmarks of tactics deployed by the LeT.

According to Indian security agencies, the terrorists came via the sea from Karachi to Mumbai.

Within hours of a telephone conversation between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani, Pakistan's backtracking on a decision to send the ISI chief is also seen as a reinforcement of India's suspicions about the involvement of Pakistan's spy agency in the Mumbai mayhem.

Pakistan has decided to send a senior ISI representative to India.

Slamming the idea of calling the ISI chief to India, G. Parthasarathy, a former Indian envoy to Pakistan, said such a move was “like asking a burglar to join the probe into the burglary he has committed. ... It would be good PR for Pakistan as they can tell the world that they cooperated with India.''

Chandra said there is no alternative but to act. “It is time to focus on getting terrorist masterminds, such as LeT chief Hafez Mohammad Sayed, Masoud Azhar and Dawood Ebrahim, who are close to the Pakistani establishment,'' he said.

International observers contend that if Pakistan's alleged involvement in the carnage is established, relations would perhaps turn chilly.

“It would complicate everything, put things on hold, make any negotiations harder,'' said Terry Pattar, a counter-terrorism associate in the Strategic Advisory Services at Jane's Information Group.

The fears of the five-year-old peace process grinding to a halt are all too real. India's suspicion of the ISI's involvement in the attack on the Indian mission in Kabul nearly five months ago has already put the dialogue under stress.

“The Mumbai attacks and India's response to them could derail the peace process — presumably what the militants would want — particularly if India's leaders attempt to tie homegrown militants to Pakistan-based Islamist groups or the Pakistani state,'' said Shuza Nawaz, the Pakistani author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within.

After a Cabinet meeting recently, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Qureshi underlined that Pakistan will remain “fully engaged with the Indian leadership'' to jointly fight terrorism.

India has eschewed bellicose posturing so far. But according to experts, that might radically change if credible evidence is found linking Pakistan to the assault in India, with consequences not just for the two countries but the entire region.