Piracy is a threat that has no easy solution

There is growing evidence that the current spate of piracy near the Horn of Africa has undermined ship operator confidence in the Red Sea/Suez route and use of the old Cape route is now a considered option despite the associated high costs.

With such a diversion adding around 20 days to the average voyage and day-rates for the largest ships in the $20,000 (Dh73,476) to $30,000 (Dh110,214) ballpark, the fact that such an alternative is being considered is testament to the seriousness of the piracy situation.

A report in the ME Times claims Egypt privately fears a downturn in canal revenues, which is a hefty foreign currency spinner at 10 per cent and provides around 4 per cent of national income. However, the official response to the claims is to deny that piracy is a threat to the canal despite a recent reduction in tariffs that is believed to be due to a combination of the fall in Chinese exports and piracy surge.

The Head of the Suez Canal Authority, Captain Ahmad Fadl, is quoted by the government-controlled newspaper Akhbar Al Youm that the current spate of piracy "is not and will not" affect navigation to and from the Suez Canal. He justified his stance with the argument that most ships on this route are large vessels and the pirates with their small boats cannot board them, saying, "They are too weak!"

However, Captain Fadl may be mistaken. Pirates are boarding large vessels as well as small ones, the facts show this - the perpetrators are exceedingly innovative! In contrast to official Egyptian optimism, a report by UK-based think-tank, Chatham House, supports the conjecture that a significant number of shipping companies may take the Cape option unless a significant improvement in the piracy situation is seen soon, warning that immediate, strong measures need to be implemented by the deployment of further naval reinforcements.

Yet the Chatham House solution to bolster naval power is too simplistic on two counts - firstly, the root cause of the problem is the lawlessness within Somalia itself and any reduction in offshore crime is unlikely unless law and order is restored on land. Secondly, it is a misconception that increasing warships in the region will be able to contain the problem in the short to medium term.

To the layman, the Gulf of Aden and Horn of Africa region looks small on the map, but in reality it is huge and would require a full fleet of dedicated warships to effectively control the region, together with comprehensive air support. Such incidents at sea happen rapidly, the pirates relying on speed and surprise - even in the very rare event with a warship just ten miles away from an incident, that would mean around a 20-minute delay from the time of the alarm - long enough for a hostage situation to become well-progressed. So in the more likely scenario that warships are hundreds of miles away, the extent of the problem is put into context.

Security guards

Furthermore, this is not "conventional" naval warfare where enemy ships are easy to identify. The resources required are massive and such a step is immediately unlikely, despite recent nominal increases and political statements, simply because the other commitments that navy and military forces are currently engaged will take priority.

But operators are seeking immediate solutions and with insurance rates spiralling ten-fold for cover in the danger areas, viable alternatives are badly needed both to ensure "peace of mind" by the protection of tonnage and for costs to be minimised, hence the possibility that the Cape route is viable - there being a significant value to such "peace of mind".

However, such peace of mind will also be satisfied by the provision of security guards on individual vessels - such a solution has the support of the insurers and will "pay for itself" when compared with increased premiums where no security protection is present and for horrendously increased costs incurred if the Cape option is taken.

Operators need to weigh all of the choices.

- The writer is a marine consultant based in Dubai