A general consensus on global migration is that it is mostly people from the poorest countries who move to greener pastures for a better life and sustainable economic opportunities. While that could be an acceptable state on a wider canvas of people displacement, in the last decade or so migration trends have dramatically changed.
Now, it is not just the story of people from the bottom of the society moving from one place to another for economic progress. According to Pew Research Centre, patterns in migration have undergone significant changes with marked impact on remittances in the last 10 years. Contrary to the belief that it is migrants from low income countries that solely dominate this moving population, Pew found there has been a rise in migration from mid-income countries and the remittance received by these countries grew by 71 per cent in 2013 from 57 per cent in 2000.
Even though the contribution of remittances to the GDP of mid-income countries is just 2 per cent compared to 8 per cent in low-income countries, the phenomenon of skilled and partly-skilled workforce moving to markets which are wealthier in opportunities and in economic output is the most noticeable phenomenon of the decade. People movement from mid-income to high-income countries has also been facilitated partly due to the rise in free trade between these two blocs and to the flurry of economic co-operation agreements.
It is also a fact that the general well-being of mid-income countries has improved in the last decade, so much so that aspiration and the human stock in these countries have been on an upward curve. In addition, potential migrants from mid-income countries are comparatively in a better position to fund their migration in contrast to people from lower-income countries.
As migration continued to grow steadily over the last one-and-a-half decades, remittances, despite global recession peaking in 2009, has only grown. According to the latest World Bank report, global remittances are expected to grow at a rate of 8 per cent year-on-year from $550 billion in 2013 to $700 billion in 2016.
Even though the US retains its stature as the single most attractive migrant destination — and hence a leading remittance source — the significance of new migration hubs such as the Middle East has come into prominence over the last few years. During 1990 to 2013 the stock of international migrants in Asia dropped, while it grew in the case of the US and Middle East.
In the Middle East, particularly in the GCC, over 70 per cent of the workforce consists of migrant labourers. In the Gulf, the presence of overseas workers is to the tune of 7.8 million in a population of nearly 10 million, which is a significant chunk of the demographic tapestry. For the Middle East, the year 1990 was a turning point in migration and remittances with large number of people moving in from Asia-Pacific to the oil-rich Gulf.
Pertinently, these movements increased the share of the migrant population in the oil-rich Gulf and North Africa countries — from 10 per cent in 1990 to 14 per cent in 2013.
In the Gulf, the growth trend in migration looks set to continue despite a growing need to employ indigenous people.According to a study by the Economist Intelligence Unit, GCC countries have one of the fastest growing population in the world and by 2020 the population will increase by one-third to 53 million, a large majority of them under the age of 25.
In the recent years, as part of bringing more transparency and legitimacy to the migrant labour stock, countries in the Gulf region took on measures including deportations. For instance over 37,000 migrants were deported from Saudi Arabia since 2013, but such measures are largely to ensure the legitimacy of the migrant in the host country and not interpreted as a deterrent to more migrant flows needed to support the ongoing frenetic pace of development, mainly across the infrastructure sector.
Stable oil prices in the Gulf will also ensure that the development activities in the region will continue, which in turn will lead to the unceasing flow of migrants.
The writer is the Vice-President and Business Head of Xpress Money.
