Musharraf's grave miscalculation

These are turbulent times for Pakistan. Emergency rule has just been declared by President Pervez Musharraf, at once ending the limited political progress that so many hoped would flourish. There had been speculation that such a move was imminent after a series of high-profile terror attacks and political tension but it still came as a shock to those who believed that a process of reconciliation, however limited, was taking place between Musharraf and his political opponents. Emergency rule is a draconian measure, easy to declare but very difficult to lift, and causes immense damage to political dialogue and trust. It pulverises debate and leaves the political arena bereft of opportunity. It came as the prospect of a better, more prosperous and more democratic future had at last returned to the hearts of millions of Pakistanis who believed that whatever obstacles lay ahead, at least progress was being made.

There is no doubt that Musharraf faces severe difficulties, especially in the Pakistan-Afghan border areas where militants have taken root. On top of this there are occasional and controversial unilateral US military strikes on Pakistani territory. These only serve to compound his difficulties. The recent attack on Benazir Bhutto's convoy showed that those intent on terror have the ability to strike very close to the political centre. Bhutto suspects that elements of Pakistan's intelligence services had a hand in the plot.

Pakistan now enters a perilous period. Relations with the US and India will also be affected, though to what extent depends on what Musharraf does during emergency rule and how long he decides to maintain it. The US favours a power-sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto but emergency rule is bound to change this equation. Musharraf, who prides himself on his political mastery, has made a grave miscalculation.