Lebanon is between the devil and the deep sea

The situation in Lebanon is a tricky one. It is Catch 22. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah yesterday issued an ultimatum to the government to either repeal its decisions concerning the group's telecommunication system and the removal of the airport's head of security or face an escalation of Hezbollah's violent street protests.

The Fouad Siniora government backed by the US and its Arab allies cannot give in to the Hezbollah's demands and this is the problem. If it backs down, it will be perceived as weak vis-a-vis a stronger Hezbollah. It would also lose the support that it enjoys in and outside Lebanon.

Moreover, it would embolden Hezbollah to ask for more incentives, thereby weakening the constitutional structure of the republic. On the other hand, Hezbollah too cannot compromise on its demands. If it budges an inch from its stand, it will lose credibility among its large followers in Lebanon and the Arab world.

Secondly, by exposing its secure communication system means its leadership and fighters' movement could be monitored by its Israeli enemy. Therefore it is really difficult to expect an immediate compromise.

The street clashes, as dangerous as they are, will surely continue until a political solution is reached. The Lebanese leaders have proven incapable of reaching such a deal. Hence a new Arab initiative is needed to break the deadlock, but it should be presented immediately because the situation is deteriorating rapidly.

The unity of Lebanon and its stability are again at stake. This time, however, the guns are out in the streets. The Arabs have to move now to stop the violence and put some sense into the rival factions.

Nasrallah has said that Lebanon is not heading towards a civil war. But history shows that it takes one bullet to ignite a conflict.