French revolution in the making

The French electorate is not stuck for choice, at least in personalities. The four main candidates offer a variety of attitudes, if not clearly defined policies.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the main contender on the right, wants clear blue water between the country's state-heavy policies and is pushing for an economy based more on the British or American model.

He is facing a socialist candidate in Segolene Royal who seems uncomfortable with traditional left-wing policies. Jean-Marie Le Pen offers nothing but fear and racism, while Francois Bayrou can charm the crowds but is reluctant to divulge just what a government of his would deliver.

There is a movement to the right but just how severe this is will be reflected in tomorrow's poll. This is France's most important election in three decades. It will determine whether the country goes right full throttle, left at half-speed or stays stuck in its present malaise.

Most of the pressure is on Royal. She has to deliver a credible performance or the left may fragment into small argumentative factions frustrated at its post-Mitterrand inability to entice the electorate.

It is entirely plausible that Sarkozy will capture the nation's mood for change. France has endured more than a decade of drift where the need for reform is agreed but the extent of reform still causes bitterness.

Its burgeoning public debt, high level of youth unemployment and failure to integrate immigrant communities must be tackled, yet it is hard to imagine the left swallowing a dose of harsh Sarkozy medicine without taking to the streets.

Conversely if the left captures the Elysée Palace then whatever reforms it does introduce will be contested but if it fails to introduce reform, stagnation will continue. This election is about change. Tomorrow will indicate how far that change should go.