The recent revelation by economists that Syria’s economy may never recover did not come as a surprise to anyone, though it did come as a sombre shock.
It is time to begin considering the next steps. But no further step can be taken with the current stalemate.
This raises the question that how long will it be until the Bashar Al Assad regime’s patrons, Iran and Russia, reconsider the feasibility of continuing to support a lame-duck president whose value to them shrinks by the day.
Long touting himself as the last bulwark against Islamist radicalism, Al Assad has stood by as tracts upon tracts of his territory have been swallowed by Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) militants.
The only way Syria can get out of its economic impasse is with the removal of both the Al Assad regime as well as Daesh. The international community has reached a consensus on the fate of Daesh, but Al Assad’s lifeline continues to be extended.
The complexity of rooting out Al Assad’s foreign support base must, however, be appreciated. This cannot be achieved without first removing the very insecurities that have led Al Assad’s allies to lend support to the murderous regime.
On Iran’s part, it is hoped that an upcoming nuclear agreement leads to a more comprehensive opening with the global community that relieves the Islamic Republic from its insecurities and allows it to let its guard down.
A more confident and internationally integrated Iran is more likely to ease support for subversive and destructive elements in the region.