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Yemen is at the crossroads
Saleh's past successes, pitting tribe against tribe and sect against sect, proved disastrous and it was such policies that threatened the unity of the country.
- By Joseph A. Kechichian, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:04 July 10, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Like the seven UAE federation members, which were united in 1971, the two Yemens reunified in 1990 contrary to most predictions. Will Yemen, the most populous country on the Arabian Peninsula, remain a cohesive political entity or will it wither away?
Despite its abject poverty, and as any visitor will attest, the Yemen is one of the most beautiful Arab realms. It is enmeshed in complex political ties that bewilder outsiders. In fact, to say that the 1990 union was facile, would be a clear understatement. If the earlier separation, courtesy of both the Ottoman and British empires, divided Yemenis into northerners and southerners, the 1990 blending brought together 25 million people who were alienated along ultra-conservative and socialist lines.
After 1962, northerners nestled in the Republic of Yemen, while southerners painfully overcame the wrath of a long war that was partly driven by Egypt's Jamal Abdul Nasser. By 1967, southerners opened a new chapter with the creation of a pro-Soviet People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), which further isolated its citizens from the rest of the Arab World.
How these contradictory philosophies amalgamated their perspectives in 1990 spoke volumes. To be sure, the collapse of the Soviet Union pushed Aden towards Sana'a, but credit must also be given to leaders who sought reconciliation. It may be worth recalling that PDRY officials, who were in somewhat weaker positions, accepted tough northern conditions. Sadly, part of the reason for the internecine 1994 war was due to southern perceptions that Sana'a leaders were excessively cavalier with power.
Ali Abdullah Saleh was the man who high-handedly orchestrated much of recent Yemeni politics. President of the Republic of Yemen since 1978, Saleh was elected president of the unified country in 1990, and was last re-elected to office in September 2006. While international observers judged that plebiscite to have been free and relatively fair, his decision to run for office was carefully stage-managed by orchestrated popular demonstrations and near hysterical editorials vaunting his praise. In the event, Saleh probably submitted to the will of the Yemeni public because he knew that a clear parliamentary majority, under the control of his General People's Congress (GPC) since April 2003, would mean victory.
Nevertheless, and for all of his prowess, Saleh has failed to put an end to the brutal insurgency raging in the northern highlands. Undeniably, southern separatists were also increasingly vocal, eager to distance themselves from Sana'a.
Saleh's response to these tensions lacked imagination as he unleashed the army to engage opponents with heavy weaponry. Fighter jets attacked several villages in the Miran district, believed to be a stronghold of Houthi loyalists, with serious casualties. According to the government, the Yemeni army wanted to score a ground victory and seize control of strategic positions in the area, although the Houthi resistance persisted. To mitigate the fierce opposition, Sana'a was diligently engaged in recruiting citizen soldiers, ostensibly to form a populist army to hinder Houthis' spread in rural areas. Few welcomed the offers, aware of past promises that came to naught and, perhaps, out of tribal loyalties.
To be sure, the ongoing fighting near the Saudi border meant that thousands probably fled to the Kingdom, with potential supplies reaching anti-government forces from the neighbouring country. Likewise, the four-year long war in the northern provinces created a network of financial interests for senior Yemeni officials, who were carefully draining the treasury in the name of fighting terrorism.
Buttressing this observation, the conservative Jamestown Foundation, an American group attentive to terrorism issues and specialising in the inner workings of closed totalitarian societies, considered the recent attacks in Yemen as "a message to the Yemeni government and the international community to show that strategy of creating chaos that Al-Qaida follows in Iraq is transferred to fighters in their original homeland".
Whether this analysis will help the Saleh government mobilise, seek, and receive international support to fight "terrorism", is anyone's guess. By doing so, however, it will push under the rug genuine internal problems that need urgent attention, including serious economic imbalances.
In response to many sensitive internal dossiers, Sana'a embarked on a steady crackdown, which did not bode well. Suffice it to say that the Saleh Government demonstrated confusing priorities while calling for national dialogue.
Ironically, the necessity to devote a lot more attention to a nationwide discussion on socio-economic questions, which the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) initiated and the GPC favoured, were not particularly difficult. Still, moving slowly on this track illustrated how the ruling party was no longer able to reform the nation, or help it get rid of current mayhem.
Saleh's past successes, pitting tribe against tribe and sect against sect, proved disastrous and it was such policies that threatened the unity of the country. If wealthy southerners, sitting on the country's key oil fields, were clamouring for more autonomy, it was because many were aghast at policies developed in Sana'a that were antithetical to Yemeni interests. Aden officials sought to further develop their expanding network of civil society and pro-democracy groups, adopt accountability and transparency methods, and pursue the rule of law. Under the circumstances, there were no dangers for Yemen to disintegrate, provided Saleh accepted state responsibility, believed in administrative precision and applied participatory democracy.
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.
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