Opinion | Columnists
Will Turkey crush Kurdish plans?
What seems certain, however, is that a Turkish assault on northern Iraq would deal a serious blow to Ankara's already frayed relations with the United States.
- By Patrick Seale, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 June 8, 2007
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
=Turkey is dangerously close to launching a full-scale war across its eastern border into northern Iraq. The aim would be to wipe out the bases of the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), destroy once and for all the party's separatist ambitions, and put an end to cross-border terrorist attacks and hit-and-run raids by the PKK, which have inflamed nationalist opinion in Turkey.
But, like any such "asymmetric" war waged by a conventional army against an elusive guerrilla enemy, a decisive Turkish victory is by no means assured. Far from quelling Kurdish separatism in Iraq, the war might provoke instability in Turkey itself, home to some 15 million ethnic Kurds. Turkey fought a bitter war against the PKK from 1984 to 1999 which resulted in 35,000 dead and the displacement of some 2 million.
On both sides, memories of this war are very fresh and there is great reluctance to see it break out again. The argument on the Turkish side is that a decisive campaign against the PKK is the best way to prevent its recurrence.
What seems certain, however, is that a Turkish assault on northern Iraq would deal a serious blow to Turkey's already frayed relations with the United States, further destabilise the fragile American-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki in Baghdad, and possibly put Turkey's own economic growth at risk.
On the other hand, a war against the PKK could yield political benefits for Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he prepares for general elections on July 22. It could heal tensions between his moderately Islamic government and the army chiefs, who are eager for a showdown with the PKK. It could also blunt the attacks on him from the ultra-secular and ultra-nationalist Kemalist opposition.
A key legacy of Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic, was the defence of the "territorial integrity" of the new Turkey, which he rescued in the early 1920s from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that Kurdish separatism is seen by the Turks as a deadly threat - especially when it is suspected of enjoying American backing, as in Iraq.
Seen through Turkish eyes - and indeed through many Arab eyes as well - America's smashing of the Iraqi state has led to a brutal civil war and ethnic cleansing between communities which must inevitably lead to the dismemberment of Iraq into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish entities, which might perhaps be grouped one day into a loose federation once a measure of stability is restored.
At present, however, Iraqi Kurdistan is just about the only part of Iraq where relative peace and prosperity prevail. The Kurds are America's only dependable allies in Iraq. With American encouragement, funding and weaponry, Kurdish militia forces - known as peshmerga - have been used for security duties in Arab areas of Iraq, inevitably arousing Turkish suspicions that some, at least, of their resources have found their way to the PKK.
An autonomous Kurdish "statelet" has already taken shape. It is now actively seeking, by an official plebiscite, to incorporate Kirkuk, an oil-rich region, into its domain. For Turkey, this is a red rag to a bull, because the absorption of Kirkuk would give the Kurds the economic means for full independence.
Dilemma
Erdogan's immediate dilemma is this: whether to authorise a military attack on the PKK in Iraq and risk a breach not only with the US, but also with the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government of northern Iraq under its president Masoud Barzani and with the Al Maliki government in Iraq; or fail to attack the PKK and face damaging accusations from the armed forces and from secular nationalists of capitulating to Kurdish "separatism".
Many observers believe the odds are that he will in the coming weeks authorise an attack. The provocations are plainly there. Clashes between Turkish forces and Kurdish guerrillas are now a daily occurrence. The situation is explosive. Another spark - and a green light from Erdogan - could trigger an all-out assault.
Turkey's suppressed anger is really with the United States which it accuses of failing, in spite of its promises, to deal decisively with the PKK. The Turks are tormented by a perennial question: what are ultimate US goals for the Kurds? Has Washington accepted the notion of Kurdish statehood in Iraq - a development which would inevitably excite similar ambitions among Turkey's Kurds?
Beyond that lies a further, still more sinister, worry. Do the US and its Israeli ally - which itself has close, long-standing ties to the Kurds - plan to use the forces of Kurdish nationalism to weaken and destabilise not only Turkey but also Iraq, Syria and Iran, all housing Kurdish minorities within their borders?
The Turks are acutely aware of American double-standards. It tolerates Israel's prolonged occupation of Palestinian territories and its daily raids and killings of Palestinian resistance fighters - all supposedly in the name of Israel's legitimate self-defence - while it seeks to restrain Turkey when it, too, in the cause of self-defence, seeks to protect its home territory from militant Kurdish separatists. Turkey threatened Syria with war in 1998, forcing Damascus to expel the PKK's founder and leader, Abdullah Öcalan, from its territory. Öcalan is now in a Turkish island jail, but the PKK has revived and once again presents a threat. Will Turkey now be forced to make war on Iraq in defence of the sacred Kemalist notion of "territorial integrity?"
Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs.
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