Opinion | Columnists
Why US policy is contradictory
Bush administration cannot succeed in Iraq without support from Iran, so it finds itself in the bizarre position of attacking Iran viciously, and at the same time trying to make overtures for cooperation.
- By Francis Matthew, Editor at Large
- Published: 01:01 August 23, 2007
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Two major parts of American policy in the Gulf are in contradiction to each other, which is creating substantial conflict in the Bush administration as it seeks a way forward to deliver good headlines at home during its final year and a half in power.
Firstly, the United States needs to give its home audience a feeling of successful conclusion in Iraq. To deliver that it will wind down its active presence in Iraq over the next 18 months, which means that it requires a more effective government in Baghdad than at present.
This also means that the military surge, which is the high point of its present policy, has to be ditched and the United States has to aim for more empowerment of the Iraqis.
Secondly, the Bush administration has picked a dispute with Iran. The Bush administration has adopted a basic hatred of the Iranian regime, largely because it has a world view which is irreconcilable with Washington's, but Bush has focused on Iran's nuclear ambitions as the keystone of his administration's assault (diplomatic so far).
Mixed signals
The conflict between the two objectives is that Bush cannot succeed in Iraq without support from Iran, where Iran has enough influence to wreck any Iraqi government if it wishes. So the Bush administration finds itself in the bizarre position of attacking Iran viciously, and at the same time trying to make overtures for cooperation.
In the midst of this confusion, the Gulf is getting a lot of very mixed signals. Out of nowhere, the United States has offered $20 billion worth of new arms over some years, to the six GCC states, clearly trying to encourage them to stay with the United States as it blunders around in Iran and Iraq.
All this does not help to provide a stable environment for the Iraqis. The Americans need to have an Iraqi government in place which will see them through to the end of George W. Bush's second term, and which will succeed in at least reducing the violence and delivering more basic services. This is bad news for the present Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, who in November had Bush's full endorsement, being described by Bush as the "right guy" for Iraq. Instead, on Tuesday Bush spoke of "frustration with the leadership in general" and its "inability to work".
The Americans are anxious to prepare to withdraw from active operations in Iraq, and in order to do so they need the help (or at least tacit agreement) of the Iranians that the future regime in Iraq should stay stable and be supported. But while the United States is working hard to promote its forthcoming Middle East summit in Baghdad, which Iran is planning to attend, Bush administration has declared that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp is considered a terrorist organisation.
Not only is the timing of this declaration odd, since there has been no recent action to trigger the supposed "finding", but it is also the first time that the United States has declared an organisation to be terrorist that is part of a recognised government, making this a particularly provocative action by the Bush administration.
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government has replied with some sophistication. A few days later, the Ahmadinejad administration in Tehran released the American scholar, Haleh Esfandiari, imprisoned since May on charges of seeking to use her academic contacts to promote an American call for a revolution in Iran. Her cause had become a major bloc in dealings with Iran.
Pacific gesture
So while the Bush administration jumps from attacking one of Iran's armed services to trying to get Iran to attend a summit on Iraq, Iran replies with a widely applauded pacific gesture. Like the release of the British soldiers last year, this gives Ahmadinejad good press, although the arrests themselves should never have happened.
In addition, this week flung up a new problem for Bush's attempts to isolate Iran over its nuclear programme, when Iran and the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, managed to agree on a new inspection regime that is aimed at offering full inspection in order to defuse suspicions about Tehran's nuclear plans, which the United States is convinced are for developing nuclear weapons but Iran insists are peaceful.
The United States straight away rejected the IAEA plan as inadequate, saying that in addition Iran has to halt sensitive nuclear work like uranium enrichment, which Iran has rejected. However, the United States is not likely to get much international support for its claims any more, so the outgoing Bush administration may find itself unable to muster much support in the UN to stop the IAEA's new inspection regime.
The way out of the confusion is for the United States to accept the UN's lead on dealing with Iran's nuclear programme, and to stop trying to pick a fight with Ahmadinejad's government. That would open the way to seeking a practical relationship with Iran on delivering more stability in Iraq, which is a huge task in on its own.
However, the Bush administration is not likely to go that route, and is set to continue to seek a confrontation with Iran. This may be a poor outlook for Iran, but is much more so for the people of Iraq, who need the world's attention and support for rebuilding an effective government and delivering at the least basic security and services.
Opinion Editor's choice
-
Russia, China complicit in Syria carnage
By Fawaz Turki, Special to Gulf News
By their double veto at the UN, they have chosen to back the Al Assad regime that is already wet spaghetti
-
Two prime ministers in trouble
By Kuldip Nayar, Special to Gulf News
Gilani faces contempt of court charge while Singh encounters moral responsibility in 2G scam case
-
Moving towards honest democracy
By Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of Russia
Russia needs to unbundle power and property and separate executive power from system of checks over it
Your turn
