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Who killed Emad Mughnieh?
The most plausible theory is that the United States carried out the murder, sending a message to authorities in Tehran.
- By Sami Moubayed, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:34 February 19, 2008
- There are several theories floating in the Middle East on who killed Mughnieh, and why?
- Image Credit: Illustration: nino Jose heredia/Gulf News
The assassination of Hezbollah commander Emad Mughnieh is still puzzling analysts and observers of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
There are several theories floating in the Middle East on who killed Mughnieh, and why? If we were to re-visit a 2006 report in The New Yorker, by famed investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, he says (through information obtained from top US intelligence officials), that the Americans were more worried about Hezbollah during the Lebanon war of 2006 than Israel itself. The Bush White House wanted to prevent Hezbollah-like groups from emerging in failed states throughout the Third World, like Somalia - or Iraq.
Theory 1
This is where Emad Mughnieh comes into play. His death is a message to the Iranian regime, who eulogised him in a VIP broadcast made personally by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Iranian presence at his funeral was very noticeable, along with giant portraits of Ayatollah Khomeini. Mughnieh, an American University of Beirut dropout, spent many years in Iran and was very close to the rulers in Tehran. The Iranians apparently had a plan for "the day after" Hezbollah falls - if ever - in Lebanon. They were afraid that at one point, Hezbollah would be sidelined within the Lebanese political arena, either through civil war, or a new confrontation with Israel. The limits to what Hezbollah can do after all have already been reduced through UN Resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. If Hezbollah ceases to exist, or is incapacitated, the Iranians need a new stepping stone for them into the Arab world. With Lebanon off-limits, the alternative would be the Mahdi Army in Iraq.
Muqtada Al Sadr after all has all the requirements needed to create another Hezbollah. The situation in Iraq today is identical to the one that existed in Lebanon when Hezbollah was created in 1982. There is occupation. There is chaos and plenty of arms. There are Shiites - backed by Iran, who are (or were) treated as an underclass by Sunnis. And there is a lot of indoctrination and plenty of money being pumped into the slums of Baghdad, where Sadr is king, promising to emancipate Iraqi Shiites - just like in Beirut in the 1980s. The man in-charge of re-structuring and training the Mahdi Army, with the aim of making it another Hezbollah, was Emad Mughnieh. This explains why Sadr ordered several "freezes" on the activities of the Mahdi Army in 2007. He wanted to re-structure, re-train, organise, filter, and re-vamp the Mahdi Army, under Mughnieh's guidance. It was believed that the Hezbollah leader spent a lot of quality time in Basra, doing just that with Sadr. Meaning, Mughnieh was eliminated - among other things - by the Israelis, with the tactic approval of the United States, in a message aimed directly at Iran. Some see it as Step No. 1 towards an upcoming US offensive against Tehran.
Although expected to fall, Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki has survived and is planning to create a new Cabinet this week, after his career was salvaged by the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani. The Grand Ayatollah, one of the most respected and obeyed religious authorities in the Shiite community throughout the Muslim world, came out in defence of Maliki, under Iranian urging, calling on him to create a new Cabinet. The Iranians apparently insist that Maliki must survive because any alternative with shaky loyalties to Tehran would spell out disaster for Iranian interests in Iraq.
Theory 2
The United States had nothing to do with his murder. This was purely the doing of Israel, striking at a traditional enemy to polish the image of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert; showing Israeli public opinion that despite the setbacks of the Lebanon war, he was still bent on combating the enemies of Israel. This theory is hard to believe, for one simple reason. If the Israelis did it - they would have said it, just like they did when they eliminated Hamas founder Ahmad Yassin in 2004.
Theory 3
This one is the most difficult to believe. It is floating in different Western circles and has been written on CNN's website. Some people believe that Mughnieh is not dead. They claim that there is no evidence of a corpse and no DNA results to prove to the world that he is gone. The entire episode was staged by Hezbollah, to rid itself the burden of having him on the FBI's list of most wanted, with a $25 million bounty on his head. They would claim he is dead, stage a massive funeral for him to make it sound more convincing, and bring him out of the underground for more work, much needed in Lebanon and Iraq, with a new look and new identification papers. The military group would then use the event to justify retaliation attacks against Israel.
When Israel assassinated Nasrallah's predecessor Abbas Al Mousawi in February 1992, Hezbollah responded with an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people. The same scenario can be repeated today and this was made clear by Nasrallah himself during the funeral of Mughnieh, saying: "Zionists, if you want this kind of open war, let the whole world listen: Let this war be open!" Others argue the opposite, saying that the US and Israel killed him - wanting Hezbollah and Syria to retaliate. The massive media machine in America would then magnify the event and then use it to add further substance to the argument they have been building since 2005, that both entities are a threat to world peace and Israeli security.
Finally some believe that Hezbollah staged the ordeal to outflank their local opponents from the March 14 Coalition. On February 14, the day that Mughnieh was buried, happened to be the day in which March 14 commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the assassination of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri. Sa'ad Al Harriri was planning to order his supporters into downtown Beirut to bring down the tents that were set up by Hezbollah, calling for the downfall of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. They were unable to do that while Hezbollah was burying its slain commander. The immediate tangible results of such a performance would be to postpone an upcoming conflict between Hezbollah and March 14.
If asked to chose which theory sounds more reasonable, I would cross off the last, and probably go with Theory 1. This is the start of something scary - and dangerous - between Iran and the US.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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